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IMPROVING THE PROPOSED 'FORWARD DALLAS!' COMPREHENSIVE LAND USE PLAN by Councilmember Angela Hunt PDF Print E-mail
by Scott Bennett    Mon, Mar 13, 2006, 12:06 PM

Where should the City of Dallas encourage new business centers and mixed-use developments to be built? What kinds of industries should the city try to attract and where should they be located? Which neighborhoods in our city should be protected and preserved and which need to be redeveloped? These and other important issues are critical to the future of our city. Today, the City of Dallas is unable to answer these questions because we do not have a long-term blueprint for growth. The City is working to change this by developing a comprehensive land use plan.

About a year and a half ago, the City of Dallas began working on a comprehensive plan that would guide zoning and land use development in our city for decades to come. A consulting firm -- Fregonese Calthorpe Associates -- was hired, and eight public workshops were held across the city to get input from residents. An advisory committee of neighborhood leaders, commercial and residential developers, business owners, and others met regularly to discuss the plan. (I served on the advisory committee for the comprehensive plan, and attended all public workshops until I was elected to the City Council last June.)

In late January of this year, the first draft of the comprehensive plan was publicly released. Two public meetings requesting input have been held since then, and no additional meetings are scheduled. Under the current timetable, the Dallas City Council is scheduled to consider this plan for adoption in June.

I am wholeheartedly supportive of Dallas’ adopting a comprehensive plan. A comprehensive plan will allow us to be proactive, rather than reactive, as our city grows. However, it is even more important that we get this plan right. Having read all 454 pages of the proposed plan, I have several concerns about the plan as it is currently drafted. I encourage you to review this plan for yourself at Forward Dallas!, particularly the sections on Land Use and Housing, as well as proposed Development Code revisions.

Below are my concerns with the draft comprehensive plan.


Dallas is already oversaturated with multi-family housing.

One of the purported goals of the plan is to significantly increase the population of Dallas over the next twenty years. While the North Central Texas Council of Governments (“NCTCOG”) predicts that Dallas will grow by 90,000 households over the next twenty years, the comprehensive plan recommends that we make policy decisions and zoning changes that will increase our population by 220,000 households.

My initial reaction to this dramatic increase in residents was “Where will these people live?” On our current path, 55,000 of the 90,000 new NCTCOG households would live in single-family homes, and the remaining 35,000 would live in multi-family housing (apartments, townhouses, and condominiums). The comprehensive plan, on the other hand, proposes that Dallas grow by the same 55,000 single-family homes, but increase our multi-family households by 165,000. To be clear, instead of 35,000 new multi-family households, the plan calls for the city to grow by 165,000 new multi-family households over the next twenty years. That’s more than 4½ times the number of multi-family units currently projected.

While the plan advocates that we dramatically increase multi-family households, proponents of the plan also claim they want to increase home ownership in Dallas. They argue that the vast majority of the proposed new 165,000 multi-family units will be owner-occupied townhomes and condos for low-income families. However, historic trends and current rental/owner occupancy rates simply do not support this claim.

Right now, only 51% of townhomes and only 5% of condos/apartments are owner-occupied. The comprehensive plan home ownership projections are entirely dependent on these percentages increasing to 85% and 75% respectively. As of yet, however, there are no plans on how to achieve such remarkably high rates of owner occupancy. Currently, the only type of housing that produces high owner occupancy rates (85%) in Dallas is the single-family home. If our goal is to increase home ownership, the only realistic way to achieve this is to encourage the new development of single-family homes.

Accepting for a moment that the higher multi-family owner occupancy rates are possible, there is no means by which to ensure that the new townhomes and condos would remain owner-occupied and would not become rental properties as they age. Such “flipping” happens all the time, particularly in depressed economic cycles. This would no doubt further undermine home ownership.

Another troubling fact is that the comprehensive plan predicts that the majority of the proposed additional households will fall below Dallas’ median income of $37,628 in yearly income. (Housing p. 5-13.) I am a strong proponent of affordable housing, and I realize that we already lack affordable housing in Dallas. If we lack affordable housing now, how is the city going to subsidize a huge increase in affordable housing for the future? What will these massive housing subsidies cost the city? How will dramatically increasing the number and density of poor within the city of Dallas affect our quality of life? These are fundamental questions that our plan – as currently drafted – cannot answer.

Do we really want to base our entire future housing model on the hope that we can (1) somehow more than quintuple the ownership rate of townhomes and condos, (2) prevent townhomes and condos from becoming rental units, and (3) dramatically increase affordable housing in Dallas at no cost to Dallas taxpayers? We need to fundamentally rethink this most basic aspect of the plan.

The plan’s proposed population increase has not been coordinated with DISD.

One of the City’s goals is to better coordinate with DISD. However, until two weeks ago, there was no clear plan for coordinating with decision-makers at DISD to address the significant student enrollment increase that would result from implementation of this plan. The leadership of DISD is unaware of our comprehensive plan and has not discussed its possible implications on the school system. The plan, which calls for dramatic population growth, will have a significant effect on attendance zones and school population. It appears that after my comments regarding this very issue at the last council briefing, advocates of the plan have engaged with DISD demographers. This is a good first step, but in addition to the demographers at DISD, we also need to talk with the school board and the new DISD superintendent about this proposed dramatic population increase.

The plan fails to identify “successful” or “stable” neighborhoods.

The plan places a lot of emphasis on “successful” and “stable” neighborhoods, and often states that such neighborhoods will be protected from zoning changes. Unfortunately, the plan does not identify these neighborhoods. If we haven’t defined or identified these neighborhoods, how can we possibly protect them? Similarly, if we haven’t identified areas ripe for change, how can we focus our energies on improving those areas? We need to identify areas of change and areas of stability, even though doing so may be controversial and challenging. Our consultants identified such areas when they worked on Denver’s comprehensive plan, and the same can be done for Dallas. Our neighborhoods deserve no less.

Proposed reduction in parking requirements will overburden our neighborhoods.

The plan advocates that we reduce parking requirements for businesses and multi-family housing. However, without a reliable, usable mass transit system already in place, under-parking commercial and high-density residential developments will result in severe parking deficits and problems for our neighborhoods and businesses. When businesses and apartments are under-parked, parking often overflows into surrounding neighborhoods, changing the character of our residential areas and resulting in additional litter and decreased safety.

Dallas residents love their cars. Simply reducing parking availability is not going to force residents to use mass transit, particularly when our mass transit system is, at best, in its adolescence. Useful mass transit must come first, then we can discuss reducing parking requirements.

It is important to point out that this is not simply a neighborhood problem. Unrealistically low parking requirements also scare away businesses. At our last comprehensive plan advisory committee meeting on March 6, Dallas resident and The Container Store co-founder John Mullen pointed out that he would refuse to locate his retail stores in a city with low parking requirements. He explained that in a “strip center” situation in which one or more restaurants share a parking lot with retailers, under-parked restaurants are a disaster for the retailers. Restaurants have significant parking needs during peak hours, reducing the spaces that are available for the retailers’ customers. When retail patrons can’t find parking spaces, they go elsewhere and the retailers lose business. Reducing parking requirements would only exacerbate the problem.

In addition, I must say I was disappointed at the last comprehensive plan advisory committee meeting when the comprehensive plan’s author, John Fregonese of Fregonese Calthorpe Associates, stated that the best way to address parking issues is to reduce parking space requirements, allow severe parking problems to develop, then let the affected businesses sort out the best solution. To me, that is reactionary and represents the antithesis of planning. Isn’t the whole point of developing a plan to address problems before they occur, not wait until after the problem happens and hope for a solution? Even assuming such an approach represented good planning, the facts do not support this theory. Otherwise, we already would have found solutions to the parking shortage problems on Lower Greenville and in Oak Lawn. Instead, we see significant overflow into our neighborhoods, resulting in litter, vandalism, trash, and traffic for our residents.

There may be some businesses in Dallas (such as big-box stores) that have parking requirements that are too high. I am open to reducing parking requirements when the situation merits. But to reduce parking requirements across the board disregards the current parking deficit problems in our city and the burden it places on our neighborhoods and retailers.

There are no requirements to increase greenspace in more densely populated areas.

Despite statements of generic support for parks and greenspace, the plan does not require greenspace as part of dense new developments. If we are going to more densely populate our city, we need to incorporate policy statements into the plan that require (not just “encourage”) set-asides for greenspace.

The “Vision Illustration” must be re-thought.

The proposed comprehensive plan includes a “Vision Illustration” for our city. The vision illustration is a map of Dallas with areas colored to represent residential neighborhoods, urban neighborhoods, the downtown area, mixed-use districts, campus districts, etc. So why is this map called a “vision illustration” instead of a “map”? Because under Texas law, a city’s zoning must follow its comprehensive plan map, and plan proponents don’t want to have to change the map every time the city makes a zoning change that doesn’t follow their map.

Fair enough. But there are problems with this map. Although proponents try to play down the importance of the map, the comprehensive plan itself states that the map will guide future development, and proponents have admitted in public meetings that it will be used in making future zoning decisions. So we must get it right.

Unfortunately, some areas of the map are colored wrong. For example, some areas are marked “urban neighborhood” (such as Northern Hills and Perry Heights) when they should be “residential neighborhood.” Uptown is colored “downtown.” We don’t need to start upzoning our wonderful Dallas neighborhoods to make way for more apartments and townhomes, and we don’t need Downtown to gobble up Uptown, which has lower building heights. The bottom line is that the map (or whatever it’s called) is important and we need time to discuss it and go over it in detail.

We need to analyze underutilized zoning rights.

One of the stated goals of the plan is to “increase zoning capacity” in Dallas. That basically means upzoning lower-intensity uses to higher-intensity uses. The comprehensive plan proposal is based on the assumption that we are running out of vacant land and will need to start upzoning our currently developed land. However, we have only catalogued vacant land in our city. We have not yet examined underutilized zoning rights.

Underutilized zoning rights are those rights that a property owner currently possesses that allow him or her to build more intensive uses today, without changing the zoning on the property.

Properties are typically zoned for a number of uses, giving property owners flexibility to develop their property as they see fit. A property would have underutilized zoning rights if, for example, the property were zoned for both apartments (higher intensity) and a parking lot (lower intensity), and the property owner was currently using the property as a parking lot. In this example, more intense development rights are already available on the property; they are simply unused. If we can build apartments on that site and increase our density by using those underutilized zoning rights, we won’t have to use up our vacant land or change the zoning in our single-family neighborhoods to apartments in order to increase our density.

It’s too soon for us to start bemoaning our lack of vacant land or clamoring to upzone low-intensity uses such as single-family neighborhoods when we haven’t even cataloged our existing underutilized zoning rights.

We need to grow in the Southern Sector.

The plan needs a greater focus on developing the Southern Sector. The Southern Sector is our future. It is underdeveloped, and this plan (not just the plan’s marketing language) needs to be devoted to achieving commercial and residential development in the Southern Sector. I was extremely disappointed to see that one of the many missing sections of the plan was the proposal for South Dallas/Fair Park.

Does this plan truly represent the vision of Dallas residents?

Most troubling to me personally, this plan does not represent the “vision” of Dallas residents, no matter what its marketing language says. The city hosted eight public workshops on discrete planning projects at key intersections/transit locations around the city. That small snapshot does not translate into a vision for the other 340 square miles of the city. What is our residents’ vision for the rest of the city? Where do they want to see growth and increased density?

I served on the Comprehensive Plan Advisory Committee, attended all of the comprehensive plan workshops, and attended the two recent public meetings. I have not once heard residents clamoring for dramatic increases in multi-family housing or reduced parking requirements. I have, however, heard great interest in pedestrian environments, trails, parks, attractive neighborhoods, and beautiful streetscapes. Let’s pursue that vision, not one of apartments as far as the eye can see.

Lack of public involvement and input.

Since the draft plan was made public in late January, there have been only two public meetings to collect input on this complex plan. There need to be additional public meetings after the consultants have incorporated the most recent public comments into the plan. The public needs an opportunity to review an updated plan to see that their input has been incorporated. I would also like to see a greater attempt to publicize this proposed plan.

The approval process is moving too fast.

Overall, the plan seems to be moving too swiftly through the approval process, even though parts of the plan are incomplete or missing, and much additional public input is needed. This is a complex document that will have substantial implications for the future of our city, and we need to get it right.

 

 
WHAT WOMEN WANT PDF Print E-mail
by Scott Bennett    Sat, Mar 11, 2006, 02:37 PM

Looking around at the group of professional women gathering in the foyer for the 41st Annual SMU Women’s Symposium, it occurred to me that I may have wandered into the wrong room. I am here for what I think is going to be a lecture affirming traditional motherhood by Ann Crittenden—her name rings a bell, see-- I distinctly recall hearing the name Crittenden attached to a book about Why Happiness Eludes the Modern Woman – but here is a roomful of, well, modern women, picking up pamphlets and chatting it up with reps from the assorted girl-power organizations with tables here – Planned Parenthood, Women’s Credit Union, Girls, Inc…and I’m wondering what’s up with that. It just doesn’t look like the kind of turnout you’d expect for such a message, unless I missed the memo about The Exhausted and Over-extended Modern Gal Giving Fresh Consideration to the Lure of Domesticity. Alas, I see I’ve mixed up my Crittendens: Danielle is the one with the conservative bent; Ann I’ve never heard of, but her bio here states that she’s an SMU Alum and former financial writer for Newsweek and The New York Times and author of The Price of Motherhood: Why the Most Important Job in the World is Still the Least Valued. What the hey, I am here: and a dead giveaway if I may say so, in my Domestic Bohemian attire – you know, the sort of loosey flowing skirt and flat shoes favored by those for whom hitting the floor to play Candyland is a likelihood over the course of a typical day. I wish I could escape before some feminist outs me and hauls me up there as a cautionary tale: “Ladies!” – Clink clink clink—“I give you the American Homemaker: 20 years behind her professional contemporaries, social zero, future bag lady…”

I’m happy to report that Ann Crittenden challenges my assumptions. She abandoned her 60-hour-a-week grind at The New York Times to stay home with her newborn in the early 1980’s, a move greeted by her colleagues with an attitude encapsulated by one acquaintance’s accidental remark: “Hey, didn’t you used to be Ann Crittenden?”

Apparently she is not here to re-hash the polemics of surrogate child care, but to bring us beyond the Mommy Wars and into more productive territory: to acknowledge the enormity of a mother’s contribution to society and identify initiatives that will promote the enterprise. I’m all over that like butter on a pop-tart.

The economic geek in her reasons that mothers produce this nation’s greatest natural resource – human capital – which accounts for more than half of the wealth – 59% -- of developed nations. Yet college-educated, professional women who choose to stay home with their children are routinely scorned and financially penalized for their decision.

Crittenden highlights a study showing that a college-educated parent who stays home will forfeit about a million dollars in lost professional opportunities. Spouses who spend years caring for family members earn no social security credit. And finally, “Divorce courts don’t have to award compensation for the financial losses suffered by the spouse who primarily cares for the children,” she adds.

Crittenden advocates the creation of “smart policies” that would empower parents to invest more time in their children: 12 month maternity leave, the right to work a 30-hour week, a social security credit for caregivers, tax incentives for single-earner couples.

It’s undoubtedly true that this country does less than any other prosperous nation to provide incentives for family care giving; on the other hand we don’t fork over more than half of our income for inordinate taxation as our European counterparts do. One small-business owner attending the conference commented that health benefits were already eating up her profit margins: to mandate a 12-month maternity leave would simply put her out of business.

Accommodations made according to market considerations stand a better chance of success. Women now comprise fully half of the American workforce: To the degree that businesses suffer a blow to productivity when their intellectual capital steps out to have a baby, employers will innovate if it enhances profitability. Dallas-based retailer The Container Store and accounting firm Deloitte, for example, offer flexible and part-time scheduling with benefits because doing so attracts and retains high talent women.

This is what women want: recognition that their career paths ought not to resemble the steady, upward trajectory of the male archetype: anticipate a dog-leg, and be at peace.

 
HOW GRASSROOTS IS BEATING SPECIAL INTERESTS By Sal Costello PDF Print E-mail
by Scott Bennett    Fri, Mar 10, 2006, 11:47 PM
Gov. Perry knows who I am. And, he doesn't like me.

I've been called the nemesis of many Texas elected officials.

I've been told by legislators that my grassroots group has begun to affect change in that special interest marble hell hole that we call our capital.

This story starts out discussing the freeways in Austin, but you'll want to read on because it will affect you and your family's pocketbooks as your freeways are also shifting to tollways. It's happening throughout Texas. In Dallas, Freeway Toll 121 is the first of many thefts planned.

In 2004, 93% of the public feedback opposed the Gov. Perry toll plan that would shift most freeways in Austin to tollways. Austin's Mayor Will Wynn, and other local elected representatives ignored the 93% of the public feedback and voted to toll roads already fully funded with gas tax dollars.

Since then, I've been leading a big-fit across Texas.

Tens of thousands throughout Texas have joined our cross-partisan grassroots group called TexasTollParty.com (it's kind of like the Boston Tea Party, but replace the tea with special interest politicians (looters) and add some lawsuits we've filed and been successful with).

WE DON'T OPPOSE TRADITIONAL TOLL ROADS
To be clear, we don't oppose traditional toll roads, where toll revenues on Turnpike A are tied to the investor financed Turnpike A, and where Turnpike A is designed and built as an ALTERNATIVE to our public expressways.


In contrast, Gov. Perry's "Freeway Tolls" permanently take public expressways from drivers; double tax drivers since the freeway toll roads are funded with gas tax dollars (they don't tell you that part); cost much more for construction, right of way, utility relocation, maintenance and service than nontolled roads; create corporate welfare as privately owned corporations profit off publicly owned assets; and add new layers of wasted bureaucracy.

State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn did an investigation in 2005 that showed one of the new, bureaucratic freeway tolling authorities had board members giving out NO BID contracts to themselves and their friends. (http://www.window.state.tx.us/specialrpt/ctrma05/)

Gov. Perry calls his plan to toll all future Texas freeway projects "innovative financing". I guess it's innovative to fund a project with gas tax dollars and then charge folks to use the road - daily - forever. I like to call it "highway robbery."

Here's how Gov. Perry's plan works:  They use our gas tax dollars and our right of way that we've already paid for to build the expressways on our public highways. Then they place toll booths on them to collect a daily drivers tax.

FAST FORWARD TO THE PRIMARY ELECTION THIS WEEK:
We Won the first Toller vs. NonToller race in Travis County. Our endorsed candidate, Sarah Eckhardt, beat entrenched, eleven year incumbent and County Commissioner, Karen "Toll Road Queen" Sonleitner---57% to 43%!  To prove that we gave the victory to our viable candidate, our election analysis matched our members to those who voted. (http://salcostello.blogspot.com/2006/03/congrats-to-all-our-endorsed.html)

And, we tipped the scale of the big upset and first Toller vs. NonToller House District 73 race in San Antonio as Nathan Macias beat toller incumbent, Carter Casteel by 45 votes. In House District 101 our endorsed Tom Latham beat toller incumbent, Elvira Reyna. And, we've had other candidates we've endorsed - win and get to the coming runoff.

In November of 2005, we took the lead and opposed Props 1 & 9. We saw the corporate welfare and extended freeway tolling authority terms that Gov. Perry was trying to sell us, and we fought hard. We helped stop Prop 9---Prop 9 would have allowed unelected people six year terms on the mobility authorities.  And we also came close to stopping the blank check of Prop 1. More importantly, analysis of the counties we are strongest in, showed we made a 20% difference for Props 1 & 9.

We aren't afraid to fight in the courtroom either. In December of 2005, we filed a lawsuit to stop San Antonio's 281 freeway toll. By January 2006 we stopped the project.

As we continue to grow and educate others throughout Texas, we plan on firing more representatives--both Democrats and Republicans--that think that they can ignore us. We must vote for the person and not the party. Independent thinking Democrats and Independent thinking Republicans that will represent us is the answer.

Help stop Gov. Perry's new tax scheme.

Go to TexasTollParty.com today and in just 1 minute, automatically send an email to Gov. Perry and over 200 other looters and let your voice be heard by telling them you don't want to pay a toll for roads that you've already paid for.

----
Sal Costello is founder of TexasTollParty.com and People for Efficient Transportation Inc.
http://salcostello.blogspot.com/
 
IT'S SCHOOL FINANCE STUPID PDF Print E-mail
by Scott Bennett    Thu, Mar 9, 2006, 09:00 PM

Allow us to take some license with Bill Clinton’s old slogan, "It’s the economy, stupid." Tuesday’s primaries carried one over-thumping message: It’s school finance, stupid. The Legislature, including House Speaker Tom Craddick, had better listen up and deliver in the upcoming special session.

Craddick could very well lose his leadership position unless he learns how to deal.  His stiff-backed refusal to compromise – with House members as well as Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and and the State Senate – put some of his own colleagues at jeopardy in the election. Example numero uno: Kent Grusendorf of Arlington, the longtime House education committee chairman and Craddick’s point man on education who went down in flames.

Candidates and unopposed legislators say school finance was the issue that had people riled up in pre-primary days. Voters weren’t happy. And the education establishment is furious. Hell hath no fury like a mad teacher. One case in point: Diane Patrick, who knocked off Grusendorf.

Grusendorf has said he would quit if he didn’t get re-elected, although he's not expected to follow through on that pledge. The speaker and other House colleagues will lean on him to stay to craft the legislation in the special session, and he'll likely want his own swan song.

As for special session, the DMN has an incisive page 1 story today about how the primary complicates the Legislature’s effort to fix school finance – what with Republicans having chosen up sides against colleagues in some contests, some members barely squeaking by, lame ducks who didn’t squeak by and a bickering majority party. The piece is worth reading.

Meanwhile, legislators would do well to emulate James Carville’s strategy when he posted “It’s the economy, stupid” inside the Clinton headquarters in 1992 to remind staffers to keep their focus on Bush’s economic performance and not get distracted by other issues.

The Legislature and the leadership need to focus in the upcoming session on creating a new school finance system – and do more than just put a bandaid on the problem by lifting the local tax cap or buying down the local tax rates. Taxpayers, parents, teachers and voters are clamoring for a permanent solution. If Gov. Perry doesn’t become part of the solution, as well, he’s asking for trouble from one tough grandma, who is making education her central issue.

 
WINNERS IN TUESDAY’S ELECTIONS IN TEXAS PDF Print E-mail
by Tom Pauken    Wed, Mar 8, 2006, 03:05 PM

Let’s take a look at some of the winners in Tuesday’s elections in Texas.

1.  Dallas County Republicans. Toby Shook’s Republican primary victory in the District Attorney’s race could help other local Republican candidates on the ballot this November. Shook defeated Vic Cunningham and Dan Wyde. He will face Democrat nominee Craig Watkins in the fall campaign. Local Democratic leaders were hoping that former prosecutor Larry Jarrett would be their nominee, believing that Jarrett would be the stronger candidate in the fall. Watkins carries a lot of baggage into the general election, with tax liens on his home and lawsuits having been filed against him over unpaid debts. Republicans have John Wiley Price to thank for Watkins’ victory. In the final days of the election, Price swung his political weight behind Watkins in the African-American community which went heavily for Watkins and carried him to victory. Meanwhile, Shook relied on a strong, grassroots organization of current prosecutors, former prosecutors, and law-enforcement officials to propel him to victory. Cunningham may have had the endorsement of a majority of precinct chairmen, but they didn’t get out and work for him like Shook’s supporters did for their candidate. Lesson learned: grassroots still matter. Now that Dallas County has become a swing county (with Republicans and Democrats equally divided), Shook’s victory could help local Republicans hold onto the Courthouse in November.

2.  The Education Lobby. School Administrators, teachers groups, and PTA organizations encouraged their supporters to vote in the Republican primary in selective legislative races. Many Democrat and Independent voters heeded that advice and it paid off for the education lobby. Their biggest victory came with the defeat of House Education Chairman Kent Grusendorf by educator Diane Patrick. Again, grassroots organization made a big difference in that race as education groups mounted an effective ground campaign for Dr. Patrick. Grusendorf also was hurt by the perception that the Republican majority has had a long enough time to fix the school finance mess. As Chairman of the House Education Committee, Grusendorf became a convenient target to blame for the Republican failure to get a plan approved by the legislature.

3.  John Sharp. The Sharp Commission was formed to come up with a new method of financing public education in Texas. I commented yesterday on Clay Robinson’s article outlining Sharp’s proposal for an expanded business franchise tax and a 1/3 reduction in property taxes to replace the current system. (link) Voters signaled Tuesday that they wanted the school financing problem fixed. In the wake of the election results, John Sharp should have a lot more clout in getting his proposal approved by the legislature in the upcoming special session.

4.  Tom Delay. Tom DeLay won a big victory in his Republican primary campaign for re-election, garnering over 62% of the vote in a three way race. His big test, however, will come in November when he runs against the Democratic nominee, Nick Lampson. Lampson, a former Congressman from Beaumont, moved into the district to run against DeLay and has national financial backing from anti-DeLay Democrats. The wild card in the race is former Republican Congressman Steve Stockman who says that he intends to run as an Independent in that race. If that happens, the conservative Stockman likely will take more votes away from DeLay than from Lampson. I wouldn’t be surprised if DeLay’s supporters try to talk Stockman out of making the race.

5.  Carole Strayhorn and Kinky Friedman. This low turnout in the primaries should make it easier for these would-be independent candidates for Governor to get on the ballot in November. I still see Strayhorn as the major threat to Perry’s re-election in November. She has the education lobby strongly behind her and enjoys the financial backing of deep-pockets trial lawyers. At the moment, I see it as a race between Perry and Strayhorn with Chris Bell’s only hope being that he can hold onto the Democratic base vote while Perry and Strayhorn split the Republican vote. Early indications are, however, that many Democrats have decided to back former Democrat Strayhorn on the basis that she has the only realistic chance of defeating Gov. Rick Perry in November.

 
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