While many political observers slept off their turkey, big changes emerged in the Republican SD 5 primary race.

Around 9:30 p.m., on Sunday, Nov. 29, Rep. Dan Gattis (R-Georgetown) — one of two prospective Republican candidates for the seat Sen. Steve Ogden (R-Bryan) will vacate in 2011 – announced via press release his intention not to seek Ogden’s seat or even run for re-election to his own seat.

Gattis cited family reasons for his decision but added that Ogden had told him he might after all run for another Senate term.

“Sen. Ogden and I,” said Gattis, “began discussing the very real financial and budget challenges facing our great State and his interest in returning to the Senate to address these problems should I make the decision to step aside in order to focus on family commitments.  It is Senator Ogden’s willingness to return to the Senate that gives me the peace of mind to withdraw from the race at this time.”

But how much “willingness” was there from Ogden to return?

Ogden was out of the district overseeing the drilling of an oil well in Abilene the following morning, leaving the press scratching their heads.  Ogden didn’t announce his decision to seek re-election until three days later, during which time Huntsville real estate businessman Ben Bius was the only candidate in the race. “My goodness, I don’t have an opponent yet — happy Thanksgiving! This is the best news I’ve heard of,” Bius told LSR on Nov. 30.

Now it’s a contest between Bius, president of the Home and Landowners Association, and 12-year-veteran senator Ogden in the 2010 GOP primary race. Ogden is favored by many observers to return to his seat, which represents a 14-county district that stretches from Georgetown and Round Rock in its western end to Huntsville and the Davy Crockett National Forest on the east side. However, Bius said his record on fighting the state business tax in 2007 might give him an edge.

With a veteran such as Ogden on the ballot, SD 5 would likely stay in Republican hands through November, and the Senate would retain a ranking Republican and fiscal policy expert.    

Some observers had worried that in view of Democratic gains in Williamson County (the most populous area in the district), a lesser-known Republican (such as Bius) might have had a hard fight against a strong Democratic candidate. With the Senate split 19-12, Republicans currently need solidarity plus a few Democratic swing votes to attain the two-thirds majority needed, in practice, to pass bills.

If Ogden carries the primary, it is unlikely that SD 5 will become a battleground between the two major parties for November 2010. Ogden’s presence may also discourage a serious Democratic challenge. We have until Jan. 4 to see how that works out.

Meanwhile, here’s what we gathered.

Sen. Steve Ogden

Ogden said he waited until later this week in order to make a firm decision.  He said he had perhaps spoken too soon with Gattis about vacating his own seat. 

“Things have been moving pretty fast with respect to this issue,” he said. “And I had to think pretty hard about what I believe was the right thing to do, and I had to talk to my family, who, like everyone else, expected me to retire from the Texas Senate.  So that took a little time … I found myself regretting saying too much – and so, I thought, once you dig yourself a hole, you’ve got to stop digging.”

Ogden told LSR he did not seriously consider running for re-election until it became apparent Gattis would withdraw – though the thought of returning had crossed his mind. According to the Austin American-Statesman, Ogden said he spoke to Gattis at a funeral about three weeks ago, where Gattis learned Ogden would entertain another term as senator. Ogden said since September, he has spent some time on Capitol Hill in Washington D.C. to consider whether he wanted to run for the Congressional District 17 seat, currently held by U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Waco).

“When I came back home I had to ask myself this question: Can I better serve the people of this part of the state as an experienced member of the Texas Senate who knows the budget or a freshman Republican in Washington D.C.?” Ogden said. “And the answer was relatively simple for me – I’d probably do more good in Austin than I would Washington D.C.”

He was apologetic about going back on what he told Bius, though he said there is no moral code or law to stop a man from changing his mind. In regard to Bius’ candidacy, Ogden said, “this is bigger than personal ambition,” and that it would take some experience to pull Texas out of what may be a hard 2011 session in terms of a budget deficit (see related story).

Said Ogden: “We’re headed for stormy seas, because we’re in a recession and tax revenues are down, and we’re not looking to the federal government, nor are we asking the federal government for money to help us balance our budget. And we expect the federal government to be more fiscally responsible. And there’s probably going to be some additional mandates placed on the state in response to this health care bill that’s being considered.”

Ogden said he was uncertain whether he would continue as chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, though he and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst had recently discussed the state of the economy.

“As chairman of the Senate Finance Committee [since 2004], Senator Ogden has worked with me and his colleagues in crafting fiscally conservative budgets the last three legislative sessions,” Dewhurst told LSR. “I will again be counting on him and the other members of the Texas Senate to balance the 2011 budget without raising taxes and to continue growing our Texas economy.”

Ben Bius

Bius told LSR on Nov. 30 he had reason to doubt Gattis’ statement, adding that the news of Gattis’ mention of Ogden’s running for another term “surprised even Ogden’s family.”

“This is not Sen. Ogden’s seat,” Bius said. “It belongs to the citizens and the voters of the 5th Senatorial District. And I’m certain of that after knocking 15,000 doors and shaking 5,000 hands and going to dozens of events here recently – a considerable amount more than Mr. Ogden has. And I can tell you that regardless of who’s in this race, the people of the 5th Senatorial District want lower taxes, they want welfare reform, and they want Border security. And we don’t want to tinker around with the budget anymore. We need to make major changes and not create any structural deficits.”

Bius said he opposes the statewide business margins tax – a plan that Ogden stood behind when he introduced a bill in 2007 to fix some issues with the margins tax created in 2005.

“I oppose the franchise tax,” said Bius. “The Home and Landowners Association was appalled that when we had a surplus we were passing a tax bill. We campaigned vigorously across the state with conservative leaders to oppose the franchise tax – it’s a state income tax on business.”

 Bius said he did not wish to comment on Ogden’s record. “… Despite the fact that Sen. Ogden has not kept his word to me, I still consider him a very honorable man,” he said.

Bius added that Ogden “apologized for not keeping his word” on Dec. 2 when the two candidates last spoke.

Of his chances now, Bius said they had been slim-to-none prior to Gattis’ withdrawal but are good against the incumbent senator.

“Sixty days ago,” he said, I didn’t have a chance to win. Then there was a candidate that decided to get out of the race – a sitting state representative. My campaign has got a good message – a conservative message – that’s resonating with the voters. And obviously we executed our campaign plan perfectly to date. Now we’ll have to develop a new one,” he said, with a subtle laugh. “… But I see the Lord’s hand in this.”

Rep. Dan Gattis

Gattis could not immediately be reached, nor has made any comments to the press following his announcement. His statement appears in full on the LSR blog.

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