There have only been 5 previous rulers to the current king, King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz (King Abdullah for short), who took over in 2005. The previous rulers were his father and founder of the country, and four older brothers. King Abdullah is 85 years old but still in good strength and health. On February 14^th (2009) he shook the country with a package of reform announcements, which had Saudi journalists calling it the Valentine’s Day Massacre. The king replaced conservatives with more liberal officials at cabinet level posts for education, health, justice, information, and the Saudi Human Rights Commission. He reconstituted the judiciary and appointed the new Consultative Council. A lot of minor appointments were also involved. Of particular importance, the king replaced the head of the country’s powerful religious police, the director general of the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice. The new director general promises to bring his agency and the activities of religious police "closer to the hearts of the people." This is something akin to community policing and I should also mention that this is something the people were demanding through Saudi and Islamic institutions, as well as letters to the editor.

The king also replaced the chief of the Kingdom’s highest tribunal, the Supreme Council of Justice. The senior judicial figure there had landed in hot water after he said he though it was permissible to kill owners of satellite TV channels for broadcasting immoral programs! The king also appointed the Kingdom’s first-ever female cabinet member, Norah Al-Fayez. She will be in charge of the education of women, and this is part of his deliberate effort to equalize the education of women and men. In the meantime, within the royal family, Princess Adila is a strong advocate for women’s rights including the right to drive, and she is at the forefront of advocacy through public involvement in charities and various social causes. Her husband Prince Faisal is the new education Minister, with whom Norah will be working.

Finally, the membership of the Council of Ulema (the highest clerical authority in the Kingdom) was expanded to include, for the first time, representatives of all four Sunni Islamic schools of jurisprudence. Until now, only those from the Hanbali school of thought had representation on the council. Including other schools of thought on the Shoura Council dilutes the impact of Hanbalism upon which Wahabbism is based—and of course that is the ultraconservative brand of Islam that spawned the likes of Osama bin Laden. This move weakens the traditional alliance between the House of Saud (rulers of Saudi Arabia) and the ideologues that follow the sect of religious leader Ibn Abdul Wahab. The change is as important for the long term as changing the Supreme Court would be here, and probably more akin to packing the Supreme Court the way FDR unsuccessfully tried to do.

As I mentioned, King Abdullah is 85 years old. His Crown Prince, Sultan bin Abdulaziz is also in his 80s and not in as good health. So it is expected leadership will pass to the next generation after King Abdullah—to the founder’s grandsons in other words; and hence, leadership will cross over a gulf of at least twenty years. If this is so, then King Abdullah’s reforms appear to be prefatory to even more in the future; indeed, they may serve to ease the transition to a thoroughly modern state. In terms of my personal assessment, in 5 to 15 years expect to see the Saudi Arabians becoming better educated. Expect economic development to continue and with it, employment opportunities that improve the lot of the average Saudi. Expect a modest increase in participation both within existing Saudi institutions and through expression of opinion by means of the ballot. Expect the government to respond through enlarged paternal care and services. Expect social consensus to become more liberal and accommodating of participation and involvement of the female gender in public. In 20 years and beyond, we may hope to see more freedom of religious practice and worship, if not quite official separation of church and state. We may see deliberate evolution towards a parliamentary type of government or establishment of a constitutional monarchy. The good news is that all of this can and should take place peacefully within a stable political environment, and none of this threatens the United States if we are not offended by their differences.

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