By now, everybody knows the 2008 election cycle is different. But if the 30-day expense reports are any indicator, things could be very different.

In many races statewide, the Democrat had outraised the Republican as of the 30-day report.

Watch two Democratic PACs – Texas Blue and Annie’s List. Much of the money from these PACs comes from habitual Democratic donors, but the amount they have raised is still impressive and noteworthy.

These 30-day fundraising figures should have an asterisk by them. One trend we noticed in the primaries is that big GOP donors are giving later and later in the cycle. So the Republicans might have more cash in the end, but may get it later than the Democrats did.

It used to be that much of the fundraising occurred by the 30-day report, and that almost all of it happened by the eight-day report. That was because paid media (TV, radio, newspaper, sometimes direct mail) advertising had to be purchased up front with cash.

But new ways of getting a message out to voters, such as auto-dialing and the Internet, have opened up. That has changed the dynamics a bit. Also, the Democrats have done a reasonable job of making some of the Republican mega-donors, such as homebuilder Bob Perry, controversial. Of course, the GOP often tries to respond in kind by vilifying plaintiffs’ attorneys and the PACs that they use to funnel money to candidates.

Nevertheless, the bad economy may affect Republican donors more than Democratic ones, and the belief that Democrats could make gains may have caused otherwise reliable donors to switch sides or play both sides of the fence. There’s enough in these campaign finance reports to make Republican leaders nervous but not panicked.

The other key factor to watch for is House Speaker Tom Craddick. Both the Stars over Texas PAC and his personal campaign war chest, which contains almost $3 million cash, have only begun to come alive.

Here’s what we see so far from the campaign finance reports in the key races we identified last week (Numbers come strictly off the 30-day report on file on the Texas Ethics Commission web site and will often be rounded to the nearest $100 dollars):

Republican targets

HD 17 (Robby Cook open seat): When the Republican candidate came within 500 votes of knocking off a long-term Democratic incumbent in 2006, Republicans assumed this district would be theirs when the incumbent retired. Democrats aren’t giving up without a fight. The Republican raised more cash, but the Democrat is competitive.

Donnie Dippel (D-LaGrange)

Contributions: $94,304.83. Cash-on-hand: $79,253.96.

Colleagues who have contributed: Allen Ritter, Alma Allen, Ana Hernandez, Garnet Coleman, Craig Eiland, Elliott Naishtat, Eddie Rodriguez, Jim Dunnam, Kirk Watson, Lon Burnam, Mark Strama, Richard Raymond, Rafael Anchia, Scott Hochberg.

Notables: House Democratic Campaign Committee, $25,000; Texans for Insurance Reform (plaintiff’s attorneys), $7,500; Texas Democratic Party, $3,600; Texas Parent PAC (school administrator support group), $6200; Vote Texas PAC (mainly funded by plaintiff attorney Mikal Watts), $21,000.

Tim Kleinschmidt (R-Lexington)

Contributions: $106,715. Cash-on-hand: $28,988.73.

Notables: Associated Republicans, $20,000; Stars Over Texas, $25,000; Texans for Lawsuit Reform, $37,600.

HD 32: This is probably the race Democrats are most worried about. Just look at the cash they’re pouring in to try and save their incumbent.

Rep. Juan Garcia (D-Corpus Christi)

Contributions: $353,837.81. Expenditures: $554,360.90. Cash-on-hand: $288,943.99.

.

Colleagues: Elliott Naishtat, Garnet Coleman, Kirk Watson, U.S. Reps. Xavier Becerra and Charlie Gonzalez.

Notables: Blue Texas, $50,000; House Democratic Campaign Committee, $15,000; Texas 20/20 PAC (rural Democrats), $60,000; Texas Parent PAC, $75,000; Vote Texas PAC, $10,434; 

Former Rep. Todd Hunter (R-Corpus Christi).

Contributions: $186,602.24. Expenditures: $172,542.03. Cash-on-hand: $188,537.15

Notables: Bob Perry, $80,000; Nueces County GOP, $11,040; Associated Republicans of Texas, $10,000.

HD 149: Contributions for a two-term incumbent are underwhelming.

Rep. Hubert Vo (D-Houston)

Contributions: $97,620. Cash-on-hand: $54,233.08

Colleagues: Garnet Coleman, Kirk Watson, Scott Hochberg, John Whitmire.

Notables: House Democratic Campaign Committee, $65,000.

Greg Meyers (R-Houston)

Contributions: $105,756.57. Cash-on-hand: $37,069.55.

Notables: Bob Perry, $32,500 Associated Republicans of Texas, $20,000; Texans for Lawsuit Reform, $16,630.

Colleagues: Beverly Woolley.

HD 34:

Rep. Abel Herrero (D-Robstown)

Contributions: $126,115.88. Cash-on-hand: $95,081.05.

Notables: Henry J. Thomas, $22,000, House Democratic Campaign Committee $15,000.

Colleagues: Garnet Coleman, Craig Eiland, Jim Dunnam, Joaquin Castro, Kirk Watson, Chuy Hinojosa, U.S. Rep. Solomon Ortiz, Allan Ritter, Rafael Anchia

Connie Scott (R)

Contributions: $88,829.26 Cash-on-hand: $61,422.69.

Notables: Associated Republicans of Texas, $10,000; Nueces County GOP, $11,040.

Democratic Targets

HD 102: Note that Democrat Carol Kent has achieved near financial parity with Goolsby, a long-term incumbent.

 Rep. Tony Goolsby (R-Dallas)

Contributions: $88,366.27. Cash-on-hand: $281,079.82.

Colleagues: U.S. Rep. Ken Marchant, Bob Deuell, Delwin Jones.

Notables: Choctaw Indians, $2,000.

Carol Kent (D)

Contributions: $176,169.09. Cash-on-hand: $177,691.79.

Notables: Annie’s List, $11,300. House Democratic Campaign Committee, $25,000, Human Rights Campaign (gay rights), $8,144.04.

Colleagues: U.S. Rep. Charlie Gonzalez; Sen. Kirk Watson; State Board of Education member Mavis Knight.

HD 96: Note that the challenger Turner has outraised incumbent Zedler. This is obviously one of the Democrats’ top targets of the cycle.

Rep. Bill Zedler (R-Arlington)

Contributions: $125,509.01. Cash-on-hand: $134,160.57.

Colleagues: David Swinford, Warren Chisum, Bryan Hughes,

Notables: Texans for Lawsuit Reform, $28,500; TREPAC (Realtors), $15,550; Kent Grusendorf, $1,000; Tom Annunziato for State Rep (unsuccessful primary challenger to Charlie Geren), $500.

Chris Turner (D-Arlington)

Contributions: $195,046.79. Cash-on-hand: $186,464.02.

Colleagues: U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, Jim Dunnam, Kirk Watson, Lon Burnam, Scott Hochberg, Richard Raymond.

Notables: Blue Texas, $50,000; House Democratic Campaign Committee, $25,000; Texans for Insurance Reform $23,962.74.

HD 52 (Mike Krusee open seat): One key thing to note about this race: most of Daniel’s small-dollar contributions come from Round Rock, Georgetown, and Taylor, while much of Maldonado’s money comes from Austin.

Bryan Daniel (R-Georgetown)

Contributions: $84,874.34. Cash-on-hand: $19,142.36.

Bob and Doylene Perry: $30,000.

Notables: TLR, $17,200.

Diana Maldonado (D-Round Rock)

Contributions: $227,293.75. Cash-on-hand: $278,368.50.

Colleagues: Allan Ritter, Joaquin Castro, Garnet Coleman, Rafael Anchia campaign, U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, U.S. Rep. Charlie Gonzalez, John Whitmire, Lon Burnam, Elliott Naishtat.

Notables: Lee Fikes, $10,000; Don Henley, $15,000; Annie’s List, $31,500; Blue Texas, $50,000; Human Rights Campaign (gay rights), $10,000; House Democratic Campaign Committee, $20,000; Vote Texas PAC (Mikal Watts), $25,000.

SD 10: Incumbent Kim Brimer suffers from a notable lack of small-dollar contributions from within the district, whereas challenger Wendy Davis has plenty. Still, Brimer is sitting on a mountain of cash.

Sen. Kim Brimer (R-Fort Worth)

Contributions: $217,165 Cash-on-hand: $1,412,142.65.

Notables: Fort Worth Firefighters, $13,493.44; Bob Perry, $15,000; Texas Oil and Gas, $25,000; Choctaw Indians, $5,000; Coalition for Better Transportation, $13,500.

Wendy Davis (D-Fort Worth)

Contributions: $287,957. Cash-on-hand: $435,965.99.

Notables: Jill Davis, $5,000, $5,000, Lee Fikes, $25,000, Annie’s List, $72,100.

Wild cards

SD 17 (Special election):

Chris Bell (D-Houston)

Contributions: $658,428.24. Cash-on-hand: $201,467.70.

Notables: National Abortions Rights Action League, $5,000, Texans for Insurance Reform, $208,500; Classroom Teachers Association, $10,000; Lee Fikes, president of Bonanza Oil Co., $25,000, Peter Kraus, Waters and Kraus, attorneys of Dallas, $10,000; Service Employees International Union COPE Fund, $25,000; George Shipley, Shipley and Associates (consultant), $10,000, Texas State Teachers Association PAC, $10,000.

Joan Huffman (R-Houston)

Contributions: $97,017.13. Expenditures: $1.6 million Cash-on-hand: $1,605 (Special PAC Texans for Joan Huffman, however, has $876,251 cash-on-hand and a loan balance of $750,000).

Notables: Texas Restaurant Association, $10,000; Bob and Doylene Perry, $25,000.

Austen Furse (R-Houston)

Contributions: $145,550. Cash-on-hand: $371,044. Loans: $200,000.

Notables: Michael Boylan, $20,000; Robert Erwin, $10,000; Walter Negley, $10,000.

HD 78 (Pat Haggerty open seat in El Paso):

Dee Margo (R-El Paso)

Contributions: $178,509.58. Cash-on-hand: $195,189.20.

Notables: Stars Over Texas, $25,000, Bob Perry, $25,000, Robert Rowling, $10,000.

Joe Moody (D-El Paso).

Contributions: $124,210.57. Cash-on-hand: $103,111.84

Colleagues: Kirk Watson, Joaquin Castro, Garnet Coleman, Allan Ritter, Marc Veasey.

Notables: Blue Texas, $40,000; Texans For Insurance Reform, $9,500; Don Henley, $10,000.

HD 3:

Rep. Mark Homer (D-Paris)

Contributions: $126,803.19. Cash-on-hand: $257,405.07.

Colleagues: Garnet Coleman, Jim Dunnam, Joe Pickett, and Kirk Watson.

Notables: House Democratic Campaign Committee, $5,000, Texans for Lawsuit Reform, $10,000, Texas 20/20 PAC, $10,000, Charles C. Butt, $10,000.

Kirby Hollingsworth (R-Paris)

Contributions: $93,128. Cash-on-hand: $104,496.12.

Notables: Associated Republicans of Texas, $50,000; Republican Party of Texas, $16,000.

HD 11:

Rep. Chuck Hopson (D-Jacksonville)

Contributions: $216,521.56. Cash-on-hand: $169,434.62.

Colleagues: Garnet Coleman, Jim Dunnam, Jim Turner, Kirk Watson, Rafael Anchia, Carlos Uresti.

Notables: Blue Texas, $25,000; House Democratic Campaign Committee, $5,000; Charles Butt, $25,000; Texans for Lawsuit Reform, $25,000; Texas 20/20 PAC, $10,000.

Brian Walker (R-Tatum)

Contributions: $76,130.09. Cash-on-hand: $74,687.74.

Notables: Texas Victory 2008, $16,000; Associated Republicans of Texas, $50,000.

Comments (1)

Comment	smaller | bigger
Name
Write the displayed characters
Subscribe via email (Registered users only) I have read and agree to the Terms of Usage.
	Add Comment