It’s always risky putting out a list of competitive races the week before the 30-day contributions report comes out. But nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Now that the election has loomed closer, it has become more clear what the key races are for both parties.

For this week’s issue, we publish a list of top targets for both the GOP and the Democratic parties for the state House (and the one Senate race that made our list). A target is a seat currently held by the other party that the party in question has a decent chance of winning. A wild card is a seat that could come in play if all the cards fall right.

Top Republican targets

HD 17 (Robby Cook open seat) –Donnie Dippel (D) vs. Tim Kleinschmidt (R) – Kleinschmidt came within 300 votes of beating Cook two years ago, by making an issue of an animal ID program the Legislature passed in 2006. His hilarious flyers had animals objecting to having a tag put on them.

It would be hard for Kleinschmidt to top his 2006 campaign, but given that this is now an open seat, he doesn’t need to top it. He’s made some mistakes, like putting his college-age daughter on the campaign payroll (state law prohibits paying dependant children from campaign funds). But so has Dippel (walking out of a candidates forum because Kleinschmidt brought a camera).

In the end, Farm Bureau’s AGFUND endorsed Kleinschmidt, despite the fact that Dippel worked at the Department of Agriculture and is on the board of the Wharton County Farm Bureau. Never underestimate the power of a Farm Bureau AGFUND endorsement in a rural district, particularly because input from local farmers is the primary criteria used in making the endorsement.

HD 32 – Rep. Juan Garcia (D) vs. former Rep. Todd Hunter (R) – This race is expensive and nasty, but Hunter (a former Democrat) has significant cross-over appeal in a district that still leans Republican.

HD 149 – Rep. Hubert Vo (D) vs. Greg Meyers (R) – Democrats think demographics have put this race out of reach. We disagree. First, the district is still close. And second, scandal can sometimes trump demographics. Vo was called a “slumlord” by the Houston Chronicle, as Meyers will continuously remind voters.

Meanwhile, Meyers has picked up the endorsement of Gayle Fallon, president of the Houston Federation of Teachers (a Houston local of Texas AFT). Getting an endorsement from a teacher union leader is rare for a Republican.

On top of that, four of his fellow eight members of the Houston school board have endorsed his candidacy, including some Democrats.

HD 34 – Rep. Abel Herrero (D) vs. Connie Scott (R) – This could be the sleeper race of the cycle. The district still leans Democratic but only narrowly so. And Republicans in Nueces County are really enthusiastic about the kind of campaign Scott is running.

But they aren’t the only ones. The Corpus Christi Caller-Times (not exactly a conservative newspaper) endorsed Scott over the two-term incumbent.

Wild cards – One thing that folks in Austin wonder about, but don’t want to talk about is how Barack Obama will play in some of the rural areas of the state. There is a possibility he could drag down the entire ticket. That said, East Texans in particular are used to voting GOP at the top of the ticket and then voting for local moderate-to-conservative Democrats down-ballot.

The races between Rep. Mark Homer (D-Paris) and Kirby Hollingsworth (R) and between Rep. Chuck Hopson (D-Jacksonville) and Brian Walker (R) are active. All else being equal, we bet on the incumbents. That said, they could be wild cards.

One side note, the Jacksonville Daily-Progress is running debates on Mondays between Hopson and Walker on different state topics. The Sept. 29 edition featured the Trans-Texas Corridor, with Hopson trying to blame Walker’s donors for Gov. Rick Perry’s veto of the eminent domain bill.

(Neither candidate supports the corridor.) This is an example of how actions such as the eminent domain veto can have impact up and down the ballot.

Another wild card is the race between Rep. Dan Barrett (D-Fort Worth) and Mark Shelton. This is a rematch of the Dec. 2007 special election. The numbers in this district say it should be Republican, but it’s now held by a Democrat. The burden of proof is on Shelton to show he can win.

Another race Republicans are talking about is Donna Keel vs. Rep. Valinda Bolton (D-Austin). Given recent Democratic gains in voter registration, and the support Obama enjoys in Travis County, this could be hard to take. But there are enough Republicans in the district to put it in the realm of possibility.

Top Democratic targets

HD 102 – Rep. Tony Goolsby (R-Dallas) vs. Carol Kent (D) – Republicans are really nervous about this race. Kent got the endorsement of the Dallas Morning News. Goolsby had a close shave in 2004 but did much better in 2006 – an awful year for the GOP.

Watch next week’s ethics report to see which candidate has more $50 and $100 checks from in-district. This one probably comes down to who wants it worse.

HD 96 – Rep. Bill Zedler (R-Arlington) vs. Chris Turner (D) – The demographics of the Mid-Cities are changing, and Turner is a veteran of U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards’s staff. Zedler narrowly held on in 2006, and Democrats will spend a lot of money here. Zedler is the incumbent, though, and this district overlaps with the Kim Brimer – Wendy Davis Senate race (see below) where a lot of money is being spent.

HD 52 (Mike Krusee open seat) – Bryan Daniel (R) vs. Diana Maldonado (D) – Once a reliable GOP suburb, Round Rock is changing.

This race was closer last time than most expected. One question frequently asked in Republican circles: Is Daniel doing the things necessary to keep this seat in GOP hands?

SD 10 – Sen. Kim Brimer (R-Fort Worth) vs. Wendy Davis (D) – This is probably the only Senate race that has a serious probability of switching parties this cycle. It’s a very hard race to read. On the one hand, Brimer filed a lawsuit trying to knock Davis off the ballot. That looks like the act of a desperate campaign.

That said, sitting Fort Worth Mayor Mike Moncrief endorsed Brimer (as did every other mayor in the district, including Arlington’s Robert Cluck). And Moncrief wouldn’t waste political capital if Brimer were a goner.

Not to mention the fact that Davis got an F from the Texas State Rifle Association PAC, and gun owners statewide will be helping Brimer.

Wild cards – The biggest wild card is Houston. Democrats thought they could pick stuff up here.

But how will Hurricane Ike affect everyone’s voter registration drives and turnout and polling, etc.? Since Republicans tend to have higher education levels than Democrats, and are often homeowners, they are usually viewed as more reliable voters in low-turnout contests. Add to that the fact that Ike provided great TV exposure for local elected officials like new County Judge Ed Emmett.

Nevertheless, Democrats have started doing better in some parts of Harris County.

Of the races in the county, the one that might be the most interesting is the Robert Talton open seat (HD 144), featuring Republican Ken Legler, a first-time candidate, versus Joel Redmond, whose father is a pastor at the First Baptist Church in Pasadena. Democrats will try to make a play against Reps. Dwayne Bohac, John Davis, and Jim Murphy (all R-Houston) but we are skeptical those districts are actually in play.

Another wild card is the Pat Haggerty open seat in El Paso. Republican Dee Margo, who ousted Haggerty in the primary, is running ads. But the Democrats are making a play for the seat with Joe Moody. The district leans GOP but is in range for Democrats.

Comments (0)

Comment	smaller | bigger
Name
Write the displayed characters
Subscribe via email (Registered users only) I have read and agree to the Terms of Usage.
	Add Comment