Dallasblog.com, the Dallas, Texas news blog and Dallas, Texas information source for the DFW Metroplex. - DALLAS BLOG - Hillary is a More Formidable Candidate in November than Obama

Hillary is a More Formidable Candidate in November than Obama

by Tom Pauken

Fri, May 2, 2008, 01:24 PM

Hillary Clinton’s ten point victory over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania, a swing state, makes clear what has become increasingly evident in the hotly contested race of the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008 -- Hillary Clinton would be a stronger candidate for the Democrats against the Republican nominee John McCain in the general election than Barack Obama. (That is why it is a little baffling why Republican organizations are running negative ads against Obama when some conservative talk show hosts encourage Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary in the Democratic primaries).

Quite frankly, I sure would not have thought that Hillary Clinton would be the stronger, general election candidate a few months ago when Sen. Obama was attracting the support of so many young voters and Republican-leaning Independents. That, combined with his strong support from the liberal base of the Democratic party, seemed to signal a swift victory for Obama in the battle for the Democratic nomination and general election success in November. But, events along the campaign trail derailed that “inevitability” and have cast real doubts over Sen. Obama’s electability in November.

First, there was the Rev. Wright controversy where Obama’s longtime pastor and mentor was shown on video making some truly outrageous statements about America in his sermons. Then, the Senator himself made some insulting statements about gun owners and people of faith to a “limousine liberal” audience in San Francisco found their way into the mainstream media and did him significant damage in the Pennsylvania primary.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton – who has been viewed in the past as more of a leftist ideologue than her more “pragmatic liberal” husband, Bill – has been reinventing herself as a Democratic centrist in recent months. It is starting to pay off for Mrs. Obama has she presents herself as the “centrist” alternative to Sen. Obama. Democrats, who badly want to win back the White House in November, may ultimately decide that the selection of Barack Obama as their presidential nominee could result in a repeat of the Nixon v. McGovern race for President in 1972. In that case, an unpopular Republican President (running for re-election) was bailed out by the Democrats’ decision that year to nominate the most left-wing Democratic candidate in the race. The American people voted overwhelmingly against George McGovern in the November election, and Richard Nixon won in a landslide.

Will history repeat itself this year if the Democrats wind up selecting Barack Obama as their standard bearer? That is the case the Clinton operatives are making to undecided Democratic delegates, and they may have a good point. My own sense is that John McCain would have a more difficult time defeating Hillary Clinton in November than he would have winning if it were a McCain vs. Obama match-up.

Bookmark

Email This

Comments (12) add comment

...
written by Jonathan Green , May 02, 2008

Tom you state, "First, there was the Rev. Wright controversy where Obama’s longtime pastor and mentor was shown on video making some truly outrageous statements bout America in his sermons" this writer states:
Uppity and most gracious are two charteristics most commonly associated with the Anglo American. Perhaps my point can be best illustrated from an historical perspective. I do not support the anti semitism of Minister Louis Farrakhan, however, he has done some great things for African Americans that whites have not ever considered. Minister Louis Farrakhan, has embraced African American men incarcerated in American Prisons and has given them hope of change through educational assistance, development of skills,job placement as well as finding recovery from drugs and alcohol.African American men have become responsible and accountable for their own lives and their families as a result of Minister Louis Farrakhan's assistance.
In the political world this unacceptable point blank. Its unacceptable to white folks because of political extremists who still hold on to the racist perceptions of white control, fearing educated African American men. In this general election, the white media has used under the table sophisticated propaganda to promote Black on Black crime through the media with Presidential hopeful Barack Obama and the Rev. Dr. Jeremiah Wright. The media has promoted an ongoing fued that has nothing to do with politics and led two prominient fiqures of the African American Community to fall out and basically kill one another's character.
I have repeatedly heard Dr. Wright point out the good that Minister Farrakhan has done for African American men stating, [I don't agree with his anti semitism but he has helped countless of Black Men]. And this is a fact that angers white folks in American. Nevertheless, Republicans will continue to use whatever necessary to disinfrancise African Americans. In addition, whenever white extremists have to look at their own history they quickly began to label, point fingers, and become upset at what is germane to their history which they created.
Since Obama has been gaining strenght, the white folks in the media has used race, snippets of Dr. Wrights sermons, and his latest address with the NAACP as grounds to attack and destroy two prominent pillars of the African American community. And its business as usually, race, power, and money, the controlling factors that drive hatred in this country. In conclusion, privately, there are a bouffant of African Americans who do questions AIDS and its plagued on African Americans, the mass building of prisons to warehouse African American men, it is what it is, and its the history created by White Amaerica. Also, the snippets played repeatedly on news stations clearly shows Dr. Wright quoting a white Ambassador.

...
written by sal costello , May 02, 2008

Hillary has run a horrible campaign.

Her negatives are too high to win in November, and people just don't trust her.

Hell, she can't even get enough delegates for the Dem nomination.

Obama only needs 275 to shut this down.
Hillary needs over 400.

The game is already over.

But, the media needs to hype it like it's close — all for ratings.

...
written by Michelle Roberts , May 03, 2008

Ugh. I'm so tired of Rev. Dr. Jeremiah Wright & the race issue. Why is everybody pretending to be shocked; we didn't resolve anything, we just integrated it.

Republicans are urging a vote for Hillary because they clearly believe she'll be easier to defeat in the fall. At least that's what they say.

Frankly, I think the superdelegates have to end this soon or it won't much matter who the nominee is. The Democratic Party is fast reaching critical mass & if this thing blows up the damage won't be repairable to prevent a 3rd Bush Presidency.

...
written by James W. Walker , May 04, 2008

The Dems look to be in a death spiral.

If Obama secures the nomination, he will receive even greater scrutiny and his resentment for all things American will continue to play out.

He certainly should secure the nomination given his lead in the popular vote and delegate count.

If Hillary secures the nomination, I think she will lose because the only way she will get it is to take it from Obama using the Super Delegates.

If another country had a candidate win the election and a group of "party insiders" inserted their own person instead, our government would likely protest. If Hillary does the same thing, the Obama supporters will likely protest by sitting on their hands in November. Hillary had presumed the black vote back when she was the "inevitable" candidate. Her husband has gone a long way to alienate the black vote by means of his attempts to play the race card. Stealing the election will be the icing on the cake for a huge chunk of Obama supporters that would have likely supported Hillary had Obama never run.

All of this is a good thing given the fact McCain is still trying to build support for his candidacy in his own party. Still, he may end up being the right candidate for this race if he peels off some of the white, blue collar voters in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania and throughout the south if Obama gets the nod.

This should be interesting!

...
written by Farinata X , May 04, 2008

Tom Pauken, Concern Troll Extraordinaire. Tell you what, Dems. Listen to ol' Tom's advice, then do exactly the opposite, and you cannot help but prevail.

...
written by Dr. Little , May 05, 2008

FARINATA :

You are being foolish. You are letting your enmity for Tom's general political philosophy blind you to the fact that he is most likely "right on the money".

TOM :

You are right. Just this past week in Dallas I visited with a very able and knowledgeable political person who has long and close ties to the Clintons, and he is backing Hillary, but knows that Obama might get the top spot on the ticket; and he candidly concedes that a DEM ticket headed by Obama (who he has met and seems to like personally) will not be as competitive as a DEM ticket headed by Hillary. There are several reasons for this, and he did mention some of them.

There are quite a few other North Texas DEMS who are privately wringing their hands out of concern that Obama may get the nomination because they doubt he can win in the Fall election.

By the way, and for what it is worth, I think it is still likely that Hillary will be at the top of the DEM ticket; and that she and Obama will both be on the DEM ticket.

...
written by Mark Cahill , May 06, 2008

The weasels Bill and Hillary are just focused on 2012. They are damaging Obama enough that McCain will win '08 and we'll have four more years of Bush. Then, she's back to run again. Still fighting, huh? It's about "Clinton power," not Democrats winning.

It's ALL about 2012 now. Too bad a good man got destroyed by the Clintons.

...
written by rene martinez , May 06, 2008

Tom and Fellow Doomsayers:

Obama will win the nomination and in November McCain will lose anywhere by 5-10 %. republicans will lose another 10-15 seats and the Senate will lose Cronyn...and other Republicans.

Hillary will not be the most formidable. Tom would love to see her be the nominee of the Party...quite the opposite effect...McCain would do so much better. Independents are going with Obama and Tom knows it...scary thought eh, Tom?

...
written by Jonathan Green , May 07, 2008

Then why is she broke? Why is she funding her own campaign with her own money? The Republicans have threw Dr. Wright, made him an Elitist, now what Tom? Its all over but the shouting! Read Huffington Post.

...
written by Outspoken1 , May 11, 2008

Rene,
I couldn't agree with you more. Would you really expect a conservative like Tom to give you an objective assessment of the Democratic presidential? That's like me saying the Republican party should have chosen Mitt Romney, but since they chose John McCain who has flip flopped on issues that made him a maverick. We all know what happens to flipfloppers in a general election, don't we?

...
written by bettyculbreath , May 17, 2008

Tom I still have my Walking for Pauken blue and yellow tee shirt so we go aways back. You know good and well Obama is a masterful young man and better the Hillary Clinton. The tired old song you and the media try to play about Rev. Wright is just to frighten White people into not voting for Obama. Now you say he was Obama's mentor. There is a great difference in spiritual mentoring and politics. Nobody gives a dam about what Rev. Wright said in a emotional moments just before he open the doors to his Church.Visit a Black Church, you did in the past.Rev. wright is not running for President.Who is Hillary's Pastor? McCain's Pastor what have they said in the past 20 years. I have worked in campaigns all my adult life Republican and a few Democrats never in 40 years have I heard such silly stuff as what people are saying about Obama.If he were White he would be the nominee Republican or Democrat. He's young, educated, intelligent, personable, looks good, speaks good,lovely family, smart wife, lovely kids and you people can not stand to see a Black man on TV every night that has not been to jail or on dope or left his wife or standing on a corner.
Get over it there are lot.s of Obama's out here the news just does not show them, they want White people to continue to think every Black man is no good. The sad part is you all believe it. Maybe Rev. Wright is right about American no matter what you do if you are Black it does not matter.

...
written by Tom Pauken , May 17, 2008

Betty and Rene, I am not making my assessment based on a preference for Hillary over Obama in the White House. In fact, I find Sen. Obama a much more likable figure than Sen. Hillary Clinton. That said, I simply believe she stands a better chance of winning the November election than does Obama under the current circumstances. The West Virginia results are the latest example of some of the problems Obama faces in must win states.

Write comment

< Prev		Next >