The GOP races for state representative were difficult to interpret.

But the players certainly have no shortage of opinions.

“To me, you had two fighters in the ring. Both got bloodied, and it was a draw,” said Rep. Jim Keffer (R-Eastland), a frequent critic of Speaker Tom Craddick.

“We’re very pleased with the results of the primaries,” said Craddick’s communications director Alexis DeLee. “The Speaker solidified his support among House members and is confident.”

Here are our thoughts on the key races:

HD 78: In the most expensive race in the state, Dee Margo beat Rep. Pat Haggerty (R-El Paso) by garnering 57 percent of the vote. In the end, Margo’s victory is likely attributable to lots of money and the fact that most independents and crossover voters — who would likely vote Haggerty — are staying in the Democratic primary.

The victory for Craddick and Gov. Rick Perry, who publicly endorsed Margo, could be pyrrhic. In 2006, El Paso Judge Bill Moody got 59 percent of the vote in the district in his Supreme Court bid, and Moody’s son is the Democratic nominee. The district still leans Republican, but it’s not a lock in the general.

If Margo holds (and that’s a big if), then this one would be a Craddick pickup.

HD 101: Rep. Thomas Latham (R-Mesquite) got beat by former Mesquite Mayor Mike Anderson. Latham was a Craddick pledge (which is ironic given that he beat committee chairman Elvira Reyna two years earlier), but the speaker’s race was not an issue in this race. Latham, a former police officer, ran afoul of some law enforcement unions. The implications here for the speaker’s race are unclear.

HD 73: The margin between Doug Miller and Rep. Nathan Macias (R-Bulverde) is 38 votes. Macias confirmed the race will go to a recount. Again, Macias is a Craddick pledge, but the speaker’s race was not the primary issue in the race.

HD 130: Allen Fletcher beat Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale (R-Houston) 52-48. This races was primarily about Van Arsdale and Sen. Dan Patrick (R-Houston). (Van Arsdale had endorsed Patrick’s opponent Joe Nixon in 2006.)

That said, the result does not bode well for Craddick. First, Van Arsdale is an active member who serves on Appropriations and can carry complicated pieces of legislation. Craddick loses that expertise.

Second, and more important, most of the things that Patrick and Fletcher criticized Van Arsdale for were things Craddick wanted to see happen – the budget, school finance, tuition deregulation.

There is a perception that while Craddick survives, sometimes the Republican members do favors for him that get them thrown to the wolves back home. This perception will become an issue in the speaker’s race, if not addressed.

Patrick has shown he can win elections in Harris County. But has he instilled fear or anger (or both) among some of the other elected officials in Harris County? It may take some time for the long-term implications of this race to become clear.

HD 67: This race shouldn’t have been close, but it was. Rep. Jerry Madden (R-Richardson) is one of the most respected Republicans in the House. On criminal justice, he tried to save the taxpayers the expense (and higher taxes) involved with building new prisons by prioritizing prison space for the most violent criminals and trying to make probation and parole more effective alternatives to incarceration for the rest. He also served as chairman of corrections during the Texas Youth Commission scandal, a job no other House member wants. Yet criminal justice issues are easy to demagogue, and the state’s district attorneys — upset that misdemeanor offenders will no longer go to TYC — backed Madden’s opponent Jon Cole.

Craddick and his financial supporters did help Madden in the end. But the close scare has got to make House members nervous, because it implies there’s a price to be paid for leadership.

HD 4: Rep. Betty Brown (R-Terrell) survived a rematch with Wade Gent. The race was 52-48. The gambling lobby came in at the last minute with attack ads on Brown, but she responded aggressively with ads and auto-dialers of her own explaining who was paying for the ads and what her position is on gambling. Other issues in the race included immigration, school vouchers, and tort reform. Brown has been loyal to Craddick, and Gent made that loyalty a campaign issue. For Craddick, this is a good result.

HD 56: A lot of people in Austin were worried about this race. In the end, Rep. Doc Anderson (R-Waco) dispatched the well-funded son of a former Waco mayor and Senator, Jonathan Sibley, 64-36 percent. Sibley should not have tried to deny being a lobbyist. Reps. Beverly Woolley (R-Houston) and Larry Taylor (R-Friendswood) had a field day with him in the local media on that one. This result answers a lot of questions about how Anderson is viewed by Waco voters and probably means Anderson will not attract a serious challenger in 2010.

HD 61: Did the gambling lobby and the school administrators really think they could take out the chairman of Regulated Industries?

It was nasty, but in the end Rep. Phil King (R-Weatherford) dispatched former Weatherford Mayor Joe Tison 66-34 percent. The gambling groups and the school lobby may have been trying to prevent King from raising money for other candidates by keeping him tied up at home, but the result probably still works in King’s and Craddick’s favor.

HD 81: Rep. Buddy West (R-Odessa) will enter a runoff against Tryon Lewis. A lot of West’s problems stem from the fact that he announced for re-election late as he wanted to make sure his health was sufficient to serve. That said, West was always a reluctant Craddick pledge, even voting against him on the proxy vote for speaker in 2007. This result probably helps Craddick.

On the Republican side there are a lot of disjointed local results, so it’s harder to track statewide trends. Here are a few observations we have:

Republicans who attacked Craddick didn’t do very well: Jonathan Sibley. Rep. Pat Haggerty (R-El Paso). Bob Leonard. Wade Gent. All made attacking their opponent’s support for Craddick a major issue in their races. All lost. Once again, house races are local and local concerns usually determine the outcome.

Most of the anti-Craddick Republican incumbents who wanted to come back did. This cycle some of the most conservative Republicans were criticized for not being conservative enough, while many of the real moderates escaped with no opposition at all or token opposition.

Haggerty was the only anti-Craddick ring-leader to fall. Reps. Charlie Geren (R-Fort Worth), Byron Cook (R-Corsicana), and Delwin Jones (R-Lubbock) survived easily. The rest of the anti-Craddick R’s escaped even token opposition. In short, there are probably at least 7-10 Republicans next session who will oppose Craddick.

Retirements help the Speaker. Some of the insurgents, like Fred Hill and Mike Krusee and Robert Talton have retired, and most of the candidates seeking to replace them appear sympathetic to Craddick. However, there are limits to what can be read into that. Hill and Krusee backed Craddick — who won by eight votes — in 2007. Keeping the open seat is a hold, not a pickup. (The Talton seat, however, could be a pickup for Craddick depending upon the runoff result.)

The Texas Parent PAC did very poorly. The Texas Parent PAC, which supports candidates who oppose school choice and support throwing more money at the school bureaucracy, tried to take out the chair of Regulated Industries. It didn’t come close. The PAC lost some of its incumbents. It didn’t make much of a splash in the open seats. The only major scalp was Rep. Nathan Macias (R-Bulverde) and even that’s subject to a recount.

There are several reasons for this. One of the reasons the Parent PAC made a bit of a splash in 2006 is because it convinced school employees — who usually vote in the Democratic primary — to cross over. This time, there were plenty of reasons for Democrats to stay home. Further, the PAC did a good job in 2006 of picking its battles and selecting candidates who are otherwise highly regarded in their districts.

The gambling lobby’s attack ads backfired. Both Reps. Phil King (R-Weatherford) and Betty Brown (R-Terrell) — who were targeted by the gambling PAC Texans for Economic Development — survived, in King’s case quite easily. The attack ads probably helped both of their fundraising.

The third incumbent targeted by the PAC, Macias, appears to be in trouble, but the Macias race was always thought to be close. In short, the gambling lobby has failed to change the political calculus on this issue.

The effect of the incumbent defeats on Craddick is mixed. The knock on Craddick is that he demands personal loyalty from his members, but his demands often get them in trouble back home. If Craddick wants a stable majority, GOP members have to feel they aren’t regularly being asked to walk the plank. Therefore, neither the loss of three Craddick-aligned candidates nor the close shave suffered by Madden are helpful to the speaker.

That said, it could have been worse (and was worse in 2006). Basically, through retirements, Craddick is likely to pick up a GOP seat or two.

And, while he lost a few of his pledges in the primary, he may be able to pick some of them back up between now and January. Nonetheless, building a stable governing coalition probably requires the gain of a seat or two this fall.To put it another way: Can Craddick deliver for Republicans in the November general election?

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