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This Is Far From Over PDF Print E-mail
by Rufus Shaw    Mon, Feb 25, 2008, 12:27 PM

No matter what pundits pronounce or what the polls predict, Sen. Hillary Clinton is still very much in the running to become the next president of the United States.  Given Sen. John McCain’s recent and much publicized problems with a female lobbyist, the Democrat’s standard bearer’s chance of winning in the general election are better than most political observers ever anticipated this far out from November.  Even though Sen. Barack Obama is winning primaries and caucuses, drawing record crowds, and raising more money than any politician ever, there is still a very good chance that he will not be the Democratic Party’s nominee after the convention in Denver.

The talking and writing heads have all but declared Hillary Clinton’s candidacy dead in the water;  no matter that Sen. Obama does not have enough delegates to win the nomination at this time.  Yet, pundits and  interpreters of polls insist we are only waiting on the results from the Texas and Ohio primaries before we start the funeral procession for the historical, and some thought, inevitable presidency of Hillary Clinton.  And yes, it does really look bad for the Clinton machine right now.  But the Clintons have a secret weapon that I believe they will unleash at the Democratic Convention.  The Clintons’ secret weapon is their knowledge of the confusing and pliable delegate system that the Democrats employ to select the nominee.  The Clintons know that they are far more formidable in the backrooms of the Democratic Party then they are on the stomp against Sen. Obama.  

Already, there are e-mails in circulation nationwide among Black political players warning of an attempt by the Clinton machine to steal the nomination from Barack Obama by brokering the convention.  One e-mail I recently read cited that at least 11 members of the Congressional Black Caucus are considering casting their super delegate votes for Clinton even though their districts voted overwhelmingly for Obama.  There is little dispute that former President Bill Clinton did a great deal for many of the Black elected officials who are now supporting Hillary.  It appears the Clintons intend to collect that debt at the convention by convincing Black super delegates to cast their vote for Hillary no matter how their districts voted.  The Clinton machine is also aware that even the regular delegate’s votes can be put in play because of the convoluted rules that govern the counting of delegates at the Democratic convention. Because of those bizarre rules, it may not matter how many state primaries and caucuses Obama has won. By adroitly manipulating this dysfunctional delegate system, the Clintons may still be able to get enough delegates to get the nomination.

Those who feel the “John McCain female lobbyist story” is going to go away are dreaming.  This story is already headed to “made-for-TV movie” status as we speak.  You have got the implication that sex, money, power, and hypocrisy are all involved in a conservative Republican’s quest for the presidency. The New York Times may have broken the story and the paper will certainly take the heat from conservatives who believe the liberal Times is doing a hit job on McCain.  Eventually though the public will begin to actually look at the merits of the story.  Whether named or unnamed, there were too many sources in this story for the story to be dismissed as a fraud.  Others sources will surface and collaborate much of what the Times article highlighted.  When that happens, McCain’s candidacy will be severely crippled. What does bother me about the implications in the story is the possibility of sexism. The fact that an attractive professional woman spends time with a male client should not automatically imply a sexual misadventure. Which begs the question:  if this same lobbyist was a man, would this story be front page news? Professional women should be concerned about the broader implications of this story.   At any rate, by staying in the race, maybe Mike Huckabee does not look so loony after all.

Of course there is also the possibility that the Clinton’s attempts to secure the nomination for Hillary at the convention may backfire.  The Clintons usage of tactics allowed by the Democratic Party to broker a nomination may splinter the Democratic Party and pave the way for even a tarnished John McCain to win in November.  Sen. Obama and his supporters have to be prepared for this possible convention ploy.  I believe they are since they have shown themselves to be ready for everything the Clinton machine has thrown at them thus far. While the Republicans are wrestling with reorganizing themselves after the disastrous Bush presidency, the Democrats are faced with the even more daunting task of not destroying itself from within before the summer is over.  At least that is how I see it from South of The Trinity.

Comments (7)add comment
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written by Sal "The Muckraker" Costello , February 25, 2008

It's not over.

Hillary could get back on track with getting 65% of the vote in Texas and Ohio.

But will that happen?

Here is the trend in Texas (which looks like what happened in many of the other states since Super Tuesday):
http://www.pollster.com/08-TX-Dem-Pres-Primary.php




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written by Mary Ellen , February 26, 2008

So, you are upsewert that a superdelegate might vote contrary to how his constituency voted? How do you think Ted Kennedy is going to vote?


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written by Brown Bess , February 26, 2008

Uh, it is over. Sorry the news has yet to reach you.


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written by Jonathan Green , February 27, 2008

Good Points however, I still believe the Primaries weild no real direction of who will be the leading voter getter. Hillary is as you illustrate long from dead.


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written by Christines , February 28, 2008

Tavis Smiley is a brave African American!
Black Commenter, Criticizing Obama, Causes Firestorm
By Darryl Fears
Tavis Smiley, the bestselling author of the “Covenant With Black America,” is in a world turned upside down. He said he’s being “hammered,” “barbecued,” and is “catching hell” from black Americans for suggesting that Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) made a major mistake by declining to speak at the State of the Black Union event that Smiley plans to host next week in New Orleans.

“There’s all this talk of hater, sellout and traitor,” Smiley said to me in a telephone interview. Smiley even mentioned getting death threats, but wouldn’t elaborate. He said his office has been flooded with angry e-mails. “I have family in Indianapolis. They are harassing my momma, harassing my brother. It’s getting to be crazy,” Smiley said.

Smiley’s problems started early this month after he invited Obama to speak at the State of the Black Union, an event Smiley founded nine years ago. Held annually during Black History Month and broadcast by C-Span, the event gathers a Who’s Who of black intellectuals, pundits, activists, entertainers and politicians to discuss and brainstorm about where black America is and where it is headed. This year’s topic is “Reclaiming Our Democracy, Deciding Our Future.”

The State of the Black Union has grown into a key event for black people since its start, but as Smiley has discovered, Obama’s presidential run is far more highly regarded.

As the first black person to have a legitimate shot at a presidential nomination, defeating Sen. Hillary Clinton’s rich campaign juggernaut, Obama is virtually a third civil rights movement, the manifestation of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s dream. His candidacy has produced a fervor in black America born of centuries of wanting. Nearly every black vote that Clinton thought was hers at the beginning of the race has been siphoned by Obama.

Each of the presidential candidates were invited to speak, but only Sen. Hillary Clinton accepted. Clinton is desperate to bolster her flagging campaign with a larger share of the black vote after losing all but a small percent to Obama. Smiley said he wants the candidates to focus on the issues that black Americans care about.





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written by Christines , February 28, 2008


Letter from Barack Obama on His Muslim Heritage

There has been a lot made in the recent weeks about the Muslim history of my family. Some of the things that have been said are true, others are false, so I am writing this letter to clear up the misunderstandings on this issue.

Yes, it is true that I have a name that is common amongst Kenyan Muslims where my father came from and that my middle name is Hussein. Barack is a name which means "blessing" and Hussein is a masculine form of the word beauty. Since there is nothing inherently wrong with the concept of blessings from God and the beauty He creates I fail to see the problem with these names. Some will say wouldn't it be a problem to have a president with a name similar to the deposed and executed former dictator of Iraq? My answer to this is simply no; rather it is the strength and beauty of America that the son of an African man with a "funny sounding" name, born under British Colonial Rule, can now be a serious candidate for the presidency of the United States.

My father was a Muslim and although I did not know him well the religion of my father and his family was always something I had an interest in. This interest became more intense when my mother married an Indonesian Muslim man and as a small child I lived in Indonesia and attended school alongside Muslim pupils. I saw their parents dutifully observing the daily prayers, the mothers covered in the Muslim hijab, the atmosphere of the school change during Ramadan, and the festiveness of the Eid celebrations.

The man my mother was married to was not particularly religious; but he would attend the mosque on occasion, and had copies of the Quran in different languages in the home, and books of the sayings and life of the Prophet Muhammad. From time to time he would quote Islamic phrases such as "no one truly believes until he wants for his brother what he wants for himself", "oppression is worse than slaughter", and "all humans are equal the only difference comes from our deeds".

Growing up in Hawaii with my mother and her grandparents Islam largely escaped my mind. My mother installed in me the values of humanism and I did not grow-up in a home were religion was taught.

It was later while I attended college at Columbia University and Harvard Law that I became reacquainted with Muslims as both schools had large Muslims student populations. Some of them were my friends and many came from countries that our nation now has hostile relations with. The background I had from my early childhood in Indonesia helped me get to know them and learn from them and to me Muslims are not to be looked upon as something strange. In my experiences up until college a Muslim was no less exotic to me than a Mormon, a Jew, or a Jehovah's Witness.

After college I settled in my adopted hometown of Chicago and lived on the South Side and worked as a community organizer. Chicago has one of the largest Muslim populations in America (estimated to be around 300,000) and Muslims make-up some of the most productive citizens in the area. I met countless numbers of Muslims in my job as an organizer and later on in my early political career. I ate in their homes, played with their kids, and looked at them as friends and peers and sought their advice.

Therefore, when the tragic terrorist attacks of 9-11 occurred I was deeply saddened with the rest of America , and I wanted justice for the victims of this horrific attack, but I did not blame all Muslims or the religion of Islam. From my experience I knew the good character of most Muslims and the value that they bring to America. Many, who did not personally know Muslims, indicted the entire religion for the bad actions of a few; my experience taught me that this was something foolish and unwise.

Later I had the chance to visit the homeland of my father and meet Muslim relatives of my including my grandmother. I found that these were people who wanted the same things out of life as people right here in America and worked hard, strive to make a better way for their children, and prayed to God to grant them success.

This is what I will bring to the office of the Presidency of the United States. I will deal with Muslims from a position of familiarity and respect and at this time in the history of our nation that is something sorely needed.



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written by BettyCulbreath , March 07, 2008

Tavis Smiley has gotten beside himself as my father would say.Obama can read the summary of the Black Union.Ms.Clinton was going because they show up when they need our vote. I have watched Black Union on CSpan and never saw her there before. I also have not seen any implementation of issues that come from Black Union.



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