For months, major Texas newspapers have written about how the March primaries will be an expensive referendum on House Speaker Tom Craddick – either a tool for his revenge or the shot that ends his speaker’s campaign.

Sure, the Speaker’s race is going to be a major theme this year – possibly the predominant theme in a few races.

But the newspapers have overblown the degree to which these primaries are about the speaker’s race — probably because they think the race makes for interesting copy.

At the filing deadline, this cycle’s primaries looked a lot like last cycle’s primaries, and those before, and those before. The number of contested races this cycle is about the same as in the past, and most of the races are about local personalities and local issues.

A House race is about retail politics. What are your roots in the community? Have you made the rounds of the key political and civic clubs in the district? It’s one of the few state races in which lawmakers can possibly meet a substantial portion of the people who are likely to vote for them.

Money is a factor, and a certain amount of it is necessary to get one’s message out. But money is not always the determining factor in House races.

Here are some of the key primaries to watch in the upcoming cycle:

Open seats

By definition a seat with no incumbent is almost always competitive. The number of retirements this cycle seems slightly smaller than in the past, but there are some interesting races in the hinterland.

All of the contested open seats are interesting, and most have several filed candidates. The key Republican races are: HD 29 (Brazoria and Matagorda Counties – Rep. Mike O’Day retired), HD 52 (Williamson County [Round Rock] — Rep. Mike Krusee retired), HD 55 (Bell County, Rep. Dianne White Delisi retired), HD 112 (Dallas County [Richardson and Garland], Rep. Fred Hill retired), and HD 144 (Harris County [Pasadena], Rep. Robert Talton ran for congress).

Also , there is one contested Democratic open seat primary. In HD 145, Elias de la Garza and former Houston city councilor Carol Alvarado are squaring off for the seat vacated by Rep. Rick Noreiga’s run for the U.S. Senate.

The open seats – by and large – are about local races and how local folks feel about the candidates. There are some Speaker’s race overtones to the results in a few races, though the Speaker has not yet emerged as a major issue. Krusee, Hill, and Talton all were part of the effort to get Craddick to resign. Therefore, if a Craddick-friendly candidate is elected in any of those three seats — a distinct possibility —it could represent a pickup for Craddick.

Democratic primaries where the Speaker’s race is likely to be an issue:

The most important primary races for the Speaker’s race could be Democratic ones. In the past two cycles, several Democrats who sided with Speaker Tom Craddick got tossed in the Democratic primary. If that happens again, why would any Democrat sign a Craddick pledge card (except out of desire to retire or jump to the lobby)?

As in the past, several Democrats who voted for Craddick have drawn primary challenges. Here are the key races to watch:

* Houston: Rep. Kevin Bailey vs. Armando Walle. A staffer for U.S. Rep. Gene Green challenges a Craddick Democrat in a heavily Hispanic district.

* The Lower Rio Grande Valley: Rep. Kino Flores (a Craddick Democrat) is facing a challenge from Sandra Rodriguez, who just received an endorsement from Annie’s List, the Texas version of the national Emily’s List – an organization that supports Democratic women state legislative candidates. Also of interest is the contest between Rep. Aaron Pena (Edinburg) – who voted for Craddick – and Eddie Saenz.

There are other races in which the Speaker’s race is likely to be an issue. Former Rep. Al Edwards (Houston), a Craddick supporter, is running against successful challenger Borris Miles, but Edwards is not the incumbent now — Miles is.  Also Rep. Dawnna Dukes (D-Austin) has been challenged by Brian Thompson, who is basing his campaign on the Craddick vote. But the Dukes family has roots and connections throughout East Austin.

Republican primaries where the Speaker’s race is likely to be an issue:

* El Paso: Rep. Pat Haggerty narrowly survived his last primary against Lorraine O’Donnell. This time, he faces Dee Margo, who recently finished an unsuccessful campaign for state Senate. Haggerty opposes Craddick.

* East Texas:   Rep. Byron Cook (R-Corsicana) – who gave the speech calling on Craddick to step down — is being challenged by Bobby Vickery.

Another contest with Speaker’s race implications is the rematch between Rep. Betty Brown (R-Terrell) and Wade Gent. On his website, Gent is openly attacking Craddick. Brown is a key member of House leadership, serving on the House Appropriations Committee and being asked to safeguard Texas elections by carrying the bill to require a photo ID prior to voting. This race also has tort reform implications, as Gent is a plaintiff’s attorney. Texans for Lawsuit Reform took the unusual step of announcing its endorsement of Brown before releasing the full list of primary endorsements.

In addition to the races above, several other races may also have Speaker race implications. Craddick opponent Charlie Geren (Fort Worth) is being challenged by Tom Annunziato. Rep. Phil King (R-Weatherford) challenged by the former mayor of Weatherford, Joe Tison. King, however, is one of the House’s most active members, with a solid pro-life record. He’s also chairman of the House Committee on Regulated Industries, which means money won’t be a problem. Rep. Delwin Jones (Lubbock), another Craddick opponent, also has opposition, but Jones manages to get re-elected pretty regularly in Lubbock.

Other primaries worth watching:

While the press is going to read the Speaker’s race into every election, there are some primaries, that are being fought primarily on other issues.  Among these races:

* Rep. Nathan Macias (R-Bulverde) vs. Doug Miller (New Braunfels). This is Part II of Macias’s original and successful primary challenge to former Rep. Carter Casteel (New Braunfels). The key issue in the 2006 race was not the speaker race but property taxes. Also there was a regional divide between New Braunfels and Gillespie County — which Casteel carried — and the rest of the district.

* Rep. Thomas Latham (R-Mesquite) vs. Mike Anderson. Anderson is the former mayor of Mesquite. This is a local race worth watching.

* Rep. Charlie Howard (R-Sugar Land) vs. Paula Stansell. Howard’s voting record is often ranked as one of the most conservative in the Texas House of Representatives, particularly on social issues. Stansell works for Houston Community College. This could be a test of how much influence the education administrator lobby does (or doesn’t) have in GOP primaries.

* Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale (R-Houston) vs. Allen Fletcher. Van Arsdale’s voting record also frequently gets high marks from conservative organizations. But he endorsed Joe Nixon rather than Sen. Dan Patrick (R-Houston) in 2006. Patrick and many of his supporters are backing Fletcher. Though Patrick is popular in Houston, in 2006, he backed Mike Schofield over the eventual winner, Rep. Jim Murphy (R-Houston) in the April GOP runoff for another Houston house seat. Patrick’s popularity doesn’t always translate to his endorsees. Being known and liked in the district is key in a House race.

* Odessa. Rep. Buddy West has drawn four primary opponents.

* On the Democratic side, Rep. Dora Olivo (D-Rosenburg) is facing primary opposition.

As always politics is fluid, and some races not on the radar screen can become important as we get closer to election day.

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