I do not think anybody who follows local politics is absolutely certain what side will prevail at the polls in the battle over the toll road in the Trinity River project.  Because of a changing electorate and a political community still trying to absorb and understand the change, the outcome of the November 6^th election probably will not decide the ultimate political fate of the politicians involved in the fight.  Instead, the outcome of the hotly contested latest Trinity vote should give us a much better understanding of what forces are in control of the new Dallas electorate.

Ever since the Democrats replaced Republicans at the county courthouse in 2006, there has been talk in political circles of a changing electorate.  If the talk is correct, then Dallas’ new electorate is supposedly less white, less conservative, less Republican and less controlled by the once all powerful Citizens Council-led white business community.  If those assumptions are true, then the pro toll road forces ought to be in serious trouble.  But upon closer inspection, one sees that Dallas’ traditional non-partisan city elections make for strange political bedfellows and even stranger handicapping.  Where else in America will African-American Democrats and white Republican big business types line up together against a grassroots organization heavy with white Democrat and Republican support but devoid of any major Black support?

Traditionalists in the political observation business are quick to point out the obvious.  The pro toll road “Vote No” folks have money and a lot of it.  If that isn’t enough, the “Vote No” folks have literally the entire political establishment, north and South of the Trinity, on their side. With money, the best political operatives money can buy, and every major elected official in the area, historically these obvious advantages would have been enough to guarantee victory for the pro toll road forces.  So, why is this election too close to call for most veteran political observers? 

One problem facing the “Vote No” folks is timing.  The new mayor and four Black City Council members who are all supporting “Vote No” have barely gotten in office and thus they have not been able to solidify their political base yet.  New Mayor Tom Leppert has had to take the lead in the Trinity toll road fight even though this was not his political fight. The heavy lifting should have gone to former Mayors Ron Kirk and Laura Miller.  But the latest polls show Mayor Tom Leppert is more popular and better able to sell the controversial Trinity toll road to the electorate then either of his predecessors.  The other timing problem for the Trinity toll road folks involves the lack of southern sector economic development.  In 1998, the Trinity River project was sold to the Black electorate as an economic development stimulant for the southern sector.  Almost a decade later, southern sector economic development is still a major political issue because the white business community never made good on its promises from 1998. Ironically, it was current Mayor Leppert’s zeal in wanting to make good on those broken promises that endeared him to the Black electorate.  Unfortunately, the November 6^th election has not given Mayor Leppert the time he needs to make good on his promises to the southern sector.  This particular timing issue may cost the “Vote No” forces Black votes that they will certainly need. 

Is there really a potent grass roots political machine able to defeat the political establishment in a city wide election? One thing is certain: the anti-toll road folks were potent enough to get the issue on the ballot. However, the grass root effort in this election seems to have more credibility in north Dallas then it does in the southern sector.  The few Black folks involved in turning out the Black vote for the “Vote Yes” folks have little or no access to any viable “Get Out The Vote” type political organization in the Black community. Whereas, the Black folks supporting the toll road, control all of the major “Get Out The Vote” organizations in the southern sector. That should translate into the Black vote going overwhelmingly to the “Vote No” folks. But with a predicted low Black voter turn-out, will the pro toll road forces get enough Black votes to win?  Despite the state of flux in our political environment, one tradition remains. No matter how heated the rhetoric is surrounding this election; electoral victory will go to the side that can get their voters to the polls.  Will the business community-backed political establishment get their pro toll road voters to the polls or will the budding internet fueled grassroots organization based in north Dallas get their anti-toll road forces to the polls? The outcome of this election will tell us a lot about the new Dallas electorate.  At least that is how I see it from South of the Trinity.  

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