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AL Central Midseason Report PDF Print E-mail
by Sam Merten    Tue, Jul 17, 2007, 10:33 PM

justin_verlander_87topps.jpg

Justin Verlander already has a ROY award, a World Series appearance and a no-hitter on his resume. Now he’s looking to add a Cy Young award and World Series ring to the list.

tigers_logo.gif1. Detroit Tigers (54-36)

Preseason report:

In my AL Central Season Preview, I said the Tigers would finish first in the Central. I thought Gary Sheffield would have a big impact on the offense and the team would rely on a pitching staff anchored by two of the top young pitchers in baseball, Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman. My bold prediction was Andrew Miller would get called up and help the Tigers win the division.

What has gone right:

The addition of Gary Sheffield (.311-22-62) has been a big factor in making the Tigers’ offense the best in baseball. Detroit ranks first in MLB in batting average (.290), OPS (.826) and runs (535 -- 47 ahead of the second-place Yankees). Sheffield may be a strange personality, but his effect on the lineup has been huge, making him my AL MVP of the first half. At 38 years old, Sheffield is third in the AL in homers and has swiped 16 bases, which puts him on pace to outdo his career best of 25 set in 1990 when he was 21 and playing with the Brewers.

Sheffield’s presence in the lineup has eased the pressure on Magglio Ordonez and he has responded well, leading the AL in batting average (.358), clubbing 35 doubles and driving in 75 runs. Carlos Guillen (.316-14-69) has been a key part of the lineup once again and Placido Polanco is third in the AL in batting average (.335). When he’s not blogging for ESPN, Curtis Granderson is doing a little of everything for Detroit, hitting .293 with 13 homers, 26 doubles, 16 triples, 45 RBI and 10 steals.

Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman have been awesome this year, combining to go 21-4 to form arguably the league’s best 1-2 punch. Both pitchers are in a crowded Cy Young race and Verlander (11-3, 3.26 ERA, 103 K) keeps adding to his resume, throwing a no-hitter against the Brewers June 12. Veteran Kenny Rogers (3-1, 2.82 ERA) has been great in four starts since his return from surgery to repair a blood clot and rookie Andrew Miller (4-3, 3.35 ERA, 31 K in 40.1 IP) has been solid in seven starts.

What has gone wrong:

The main problem for Detroit this year has been the bullpen. Closer Todd Jones has 23 saves, but has a 5.06 ERA and the closer of the future, Joel Zumaya, had surgery to repair a ruptured tendon in his finger. Setup man Fernando Rodney struggled (5.40 ERA in 27 games) and then went on the DL and Jason Grilli has been bad (5.80 ERA in 31 games).

Starter Nate Robertson is having a rough season (5-6, 4.92 ERA) after winning 13 games and posting a 3.84 ERA last year as is outfielder Craig Monroe (.220-9-44), who hit 28 home runs with 92 RBI last season for the Tigers.

What to expect in the second half:

We saw a similar start from the Tigers last year, but they bombed in the second half, going 36-38 and losing the division to Minnesota. However, I don’t think they will have similar problems this year even though Cleveland is breathing down their neck. Joel Zumaya could return in mid-August and Fernando Rodney could be back as soon as early August. Detroit could also add an arm at the deadline.

I’m sticking with my original prediction and say Andrew Miller will help them win the division. He should continue to get better with experience and along with Verlander, Bonderman and Rogers, will give the Tigers the deepest rotation when the playoffs begin. If Zumaya and Rodney come back healthy and especially if they can add another arm before the trade deadline (Gagne?), they will be the team to beat in October.

indians_logo.gif2. Cleveland Indians (54-37)

Preseason report:

In my AL Central Season Preview, I said the Indians would finish second in the Central. I predicted the Indians would win the Wild Card, fueled by MVP candidates Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner, Cy Young candidate C.C. Sabathia and a rebound season from Jhonny Peralta. My bold prediction was Adam Miller would help the Indians make it to the playoffs.

What has gone right:

The offense has been the strength for the Indians as they rank third in MLB in runs (486). Grady Sizemore (.279-15-46-25 SB) is having another stellar season and Victor Martinez (.321-16-71) is on pace for the best season of his career. Shortstop Jhonny Peralta (.283-14-50) is having a strong comeback season and Ryan Garko (.304-11-34) has played well at first base. Casey Blake has also chipped in with 14 homers and 48 RBI.

Although he has struggled in his last two starts, C.C. Sabathia (12-4, 3.78 ERA, 125 K) has come through with his best season and is in the mix among Cy Young contenders. The biggest surprise for Cleveland has been Fausto Carmona (11-4, 3.77 ERA), who was given a place in the rotation when Cliff Lee began the season on the DL. Carmona has been very consistent and loves to pitch in the day when he is 8-0 with a 1.98 ERA.

GM Mark Shapiro recently signed Travis Hafner to a four-year, $57 million contract extension and manager Eric Wedge to a three-year extension, giving the organization more long-term stability. Shapiro signed a five-year extension in spring training after signing Grady Sizemore through 2012 and then signed Jake Westbrook to a three-year, $33 million extension.

Next up for Shapiro is C.C. Sabathia, whose contract runs out after next season.

What has gone wrong:

I was convinced this was the year Travis Hafner (.266-15-60) would win his first MVP award and despite staying healthy, he has been disappointing so far. I also thought Cleveland stole a great player from San Diego when they traded Kevin Kouzmanoff for Josh Barfield in the offseason, but Barfield (.255-2-40-10 SB) hasn’t been nearly as good as he was with the Padres last season.

After a great rookie year, Jeremy Sowers (1-6, 6.93 ERA in 12 starts) was expected to be a major part of the rotation this year, but he showed no signs of the success he had last season and was demoted to Triple-A. Third baseman Andy Marte was also expected to be with the team this year, but was sent to Triple-A as well after hitting just .180-1-8 in 50 at-bats and suffering a hamstring injury. He’s yet to find his swing in the minors as he’s hitting just .259-9-30.

The bullpen was atrocious last year, so GM Mark Shapiro signed Joe Borowski and Roberto Hernandez. While Borowski has more saves (26) than the team had all last year (24), he his ERA is 5.30 and Roberto Hernandez has a 6.23 ERA in 28 games. Two other free-agent signings, David Dellucci (.234-4-20) and Trot Nixon (.238-3-27) have good reputations for there presence in the dugout, but that has been overshadowed by their stats at the plate.

Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook were supposed to be the Indians’ no. 2 and 3 starters. Both players have struggled as Westbrook is 1-4 with a 6.08 ERA in 10 starts and Lee is 5-5 with a 5.23 ERA. They both also have been injured.

Finally, the injury to Adam Miller (4-2, 4.17 ERA, 52 K in 54 IP at Triple-A Buffalo) is a bigger deal than most people would think. If he hadn’t spent six weeks out because of a strained tendon in his finger, he’d be in the rotation by now. He’s had a tough time in his return from the injury, but he has hit 99 on the radar gun.

For those unfamiliar with Miller, he pitched like an ace last year at Double-A Akron, posting a 15-6 record, 2.75 ERA, and 157 K in 154 IP. Cleveland was cautious with him and decided to start Miller in Triple-A despite a great spring (0.00 ERA, 8 K, 14 IP).

What to expect in the second half:

Last year, it was hard to see how such a good team did so poorly in the standings. This year, while I picked them to win the Wild Card, I expected much better production from guys like Hafner, Westbrook, Lee, Barfield and others. I also thought Miller would be in the rotation. So it’s hard to see how team with so many struggles is doing so well in the standings.

This is great news for Cleveland fans. Only ½ game back of Detroit, the Indians could turn the tables if they get a boost from players rebounding from a bad first half. That, combined with a healthy Adam Miller and acquisition of a bullpen arm (again, Gagne?), could make Cleveland just as dangerous as the Tigers.

Shapiro has been a great GM, but he needs to go out and fix his mistake of trying to get by with a patchwork bullpen. Adding a legitimate closer could make the difference for this team in the playoffs.

twins_logo.gif3. Minnesota Twins (49-43)

Preseason report:

In my AL Central Season Preview, I said the Twins would finish third in the Central. I thought it would be hard for the Twins to duplicate last year’s success after losing two major parts of the rotation (Liriano and Radke) and making no significant moves in the offseason. My bold prediction was Michael Cuddyer would better his ’06 breakout season to hit 35 home runs and drive in 120 runs.

What has gone right:

As I’ve said the AL Cy Young race is crowded, but I gotta give my first-half Cy Young to the Great Johan Santana. Santana is second in wins (11), ERA (2.60) and strikeouts (133) in the AL, and he’s won three of the last four awards. I’d also argue he should have won in 2005 when his win total suffered because of low run support.

Last year’s MVP, Justin Morneau (.293-25-76), is having another big year and Torii Hunter is fifth in the AL (19) in homers and RBI (71). Hunter is in the final year of his contract.

Pat Neshek (1.59 in 45 games) and closer Joe Nathan (2.03 ERA, 18 saves) highlight a strong bullpen and the Twins have the second-highest fielding percentage in baseball (.988).

What has gone wrong:

I wasn’t impressed with GM Terry Ryan’s decision to replace Francisco Liriano and Brad Radke with Ramon Oritz and Sidney Ponson before the season and then it proved to be a disaster as Ponson (2-5, 6.93 ERA) was let go and Ortiz (3-4, 5.35 ERA) was demoted to the bullpen. This opened the door for rookie Kevin Slowey, but he hasn’t exactly seized the opportunity with a 5.84 ERA.

Nick Punto (.212-1-18) is making a place for himself among the players with the least productive seasons at third base of all time. I’m sure there have been players with seasons worse than Punto’s this year, but it can’t be many. Joe Mauer (.312-4-40) has been OK, but not as good as the Twins expected after last season.

What to expect in the second half:

As I said before the season, Minnesota should deal Torii Hunter at the deadline because he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year and there is no way the Twins will be able to afford him with the way the market is now. Sure, they are not out of the race, but it will be hard to compete with Cleveland and Detroit unless they make a big move and the Twins aren’t known for making big moves.

Trading Hunter makes sense because while they will receive draft-pick compensation for him at the end of the year, it won’t be the same as plucking established prospects from someone for him. With Ichiro signing a five-year deal for $90 million, it helped Hunter out immeasurably. It not only set the stage for a big contract, but it took a competitor off the market.

whitesox_logo.gif4. Chicago White Sox (40-50)

Preseason report:

In my AL Central Season Preview, I said the White Sox would finish fourth in the Central. I predicted a bounce-back season for Jose Contreras, a down year for Bobby Jenks, and I thought John Danks was a great pickup. My bold prediction was Jermaine Dye and Mark Buehrle would be dealt at the trade deadline.

What has gone right:

I was totally shocked when GM Ken Williams inked Mark Buehrle (6-5, 2.98 ERA) to a four-year, $56 million contract. Buehrle seemed destined to be traded at the deadline or at the very least test the market after the season.

Williams and Buehrle both deserve credit for getting this done. Buehrle obviously felt a commitment to the team and the city, which is cool to see. Why else would he sign that kind of deal? Williams scores points for getting Buehrle, who is younger and maybe slightly better than Barry Zito, to sign for much less money for less years. Check this out:

Barry Zito, 29: signed a seven-year, $126 million contract in the offseason (avg. $18 million per season).

Career Stats: 108-72, 3.64 ERA, 1162 K, 1535 IP, 1.264 WHIP

Mark Buehrle, 28: signed a four-year, $56 million contract July 8 (avg. $14 million per season).

Career Stats: 103-71, 3.76 ERA, 899 K, 1551.1 IP, 1.247 WHIP

Jon Garland (7-6, 3.85) and Javier Vazquez (6-5, 3.77 ERA, 114 K) are also having strong seasons in the rotation and John Danks (5-6, 4.62 ERA) has been inconsistent, but very good at times.

What has gone wrong:

For some reason, I had a feeling Jose Contreras (5-11, 5.32 ERA) would rebound from a bad second half from last year, but he’s been just as bad this season. However, Contreras has been just one of many failures for the White Sox.

The middle relief has struggled like no other with Mike MacDougal (6.23 ERA in 31 games, now on the DL), Nick Masset (7.22 ERA in 26 games), David Aardsma (6.40 ERA in 25 games) and Boone Logan (5.54 ERA in 37 games) stinking it up on a regular basis.

Even with the bullpen problems, the offense has been even worse, ranking last in MLB in batting average (.243) and 29th in runs (372). Joe Crede (.216-4-22) played in just 47 games before having back surgery and his replacement, rookie Josh Fields, hasn’t been as good as expected (.238-5-20-0 SB in 35 games). The outfield consists of Jermaine Dye (.226-15-44), Darin Erstad (.264-2-21) and Rob Mackowiak (.267-5-27), who combine for one of the least-productive outfields in baseball. Infielders Tadahito Igughi (.256-5-26) Juan Uribe (.222-8-32) are also having bad years.

What to expect in the second half:

Again, the Buehrle signing surprised me, so anything is possible. I still expect Dye to be traded, but it’s tough to know if Chicago will be buyers or sellers. Having to leapfrog three teams in the standings will be very tough, even with some major additions. Contreras may be traded too if Chicago becomes a seller.

royals_logo.gif5. Kansas City Royals (39-52)

Preseason report:

In my AL Central Season Preview, I said the Royals would finish last in the Central. I thought the Royals had some exciting players to get excited about, but it would be a shock if they won more than 70 games. My bold prediction was Zach Greinke would win the AL Comeback Player of the Year in a tight race.

What has gone right:

The team took a chance on a pricey free agent and so far, Gil Meche (6-6, 3.69 ERA) has been very good. The Royals have also gotten a good season from Brian Bannister (5-5, 3.71 ERA), who was acquired in a trade from the Mets. Joakim Soria (2.11 ERA, 10 saves) leads a successful bullpen that includes Jimmy Gobble (2.78 ERA in 46 games) and David Riske (2.53 ERA in 41 games).

Catcher John Buck’s 15 homers not only lead the team, but they are more than double the player with the second most (Sweeney, 7). Rookie Billy Butler (.313-3-17 in 28 games) is getting some good experience at the big-league level.

What has gone wrong:

The one thing Royals’ fans had to look forward to was the great young players to watch in 2007. At the top of the list was Alex Gordon (.231-6-29). After hitting .173 in April and .195 in May, Gordon seemed to get the hang of things in June (.327). However, Gordon is off to a bad start this month, hitting just .189.

Arguably the team’s best player from last season, Mark Teahen (.289-5-43-8 SB), hasn’t been able to find the stroke from last year and broke the club record by striking out in 22-straight games this season.

Ryan Shealy (.221-3-21) may not return to the majors when he comes back from the DL with a hamstring injury and my comeback pick, Zach Greinke (4-5, 4.65 ERA), had a good start to the season, but was eventually moved to the bullpen.

Odalis Perez (4-8, 5.68 ERA) and Jorge de la Rosa (7-10, 5.25 ERA) have struggled in the rotation and Emil Brown has had a down year (.231-4-38).

What to expect in the second half:

The Royals are shopping Reggie Sanders and Octavio Dotel, both free agents at the end of the year. They aren’t likely to get much in return, but the Royals need to keep filling their farm system. All fans can hope for is a turnaround by Alex Gordon and other young players to get them ready to maybe make a run at .500 next year.

*stats and records are current prior to games played for July 16

Comments (3)add comment
...
written by Adam , July 18, 2007

Might also want to mention the great play of Inge and Granderson. Miller made Marouth expendable. So great to see the Tigers out of the cellar.


...
written by Sam Merten , July 18, 2007

Adam:

I did mention Granderson and as for Inge (.246-11-42), I woudn’t say he’s been great. Solid, but not great.



...
written by Adam , July 18, 2007

Inge has been solid at the plate but more so in the field. Even though he is a walrus, Casey and Inge make a good corner defense.



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