| NL Central Midseason Report |
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| by Sam Merten | Fri, Jul 13, 2007, 05:38 PM |
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Ryan Braun reminds me of Hall-of-Famer Paul Molitor, but with more power.  1. Preseason report: In my NL Central Season Preview, I said the Brewers would finish first in the Central. I thought the health of Ben Sheets and J.J. Hardy and improvement of Prince Fielder would be the keys to What has gone right: Last year, a 250 pound-plus first baseman emerged as one of the best power hitters in baseball after a solid rookie season (.288-22-63 in 2005). That player, Ryan Howard, went on to lead the NL in home runs and won the NL MVP. Prince Fielder, another hefty first baseman, is doing a fine Ryan Howard impersonation after his rookie season last year (.271-28-81) and his stats at the All-Star break (.284-29-70) are virtually identical to Howard’s last year at the same point (.278-28-71). Does that mean an NL MVP award will follow? He’ll need to have a great second half like Howard did last year, but given what’s he’s accomplished so far, Fielder is my first half NL MVP. Two players that needed to be healthy for If things hold, I’ll be two for two on my Brewers bold prediction as along with the team being in first place, Ryan Braun (.350-11-32-8 SB in 163 AB) is certainly making noise in the NL ROY race. Astros’ center fielder Hunter Pence, who you can read about below, is leading the race, but only because Braun was called up later in the season. If Braun continues to play well, he may get the edge because he’s contributing to a contending team. Fellow rookie Yovani Gallardo (1-1, 3.38 ERA), who I said would be ready to join the rotation by the All-Star break, has been given a shot in the rotation and had success, but is in the bullpen for now. What has gone wrong: The struggles of the starting pitching only further emphasizes the importance of keeping Ben Sheets healthy. Jeff Suppan (8-8, 5.00 ERA), a big free-agent signing in the offseason, started out well, but has cooled off considerably. Chris Capuano (5-6, 4.78 ERA), an 18-game winner in 2005 and an All Star in 2006, has been disappointing and Dave Bush (7-7, 4.86 ERA) hasn’t had the breakout season the Brewers were expecting. It’s hard to complain too much about the offense given how much success it has had so far, but Rickie Weeks (.221-5-19-9 SB in 60 games) continues to battle injuries and Bill Hall (.271-9-38) is out until mid-August with a sprained ankle. What to expect in the second half: The Cubs have done a good job to close the gap and I expect the Cardinals to improve in the second half, but barring a major injury, the Brewers will be in the playoffs.
Preseason report: In my NL Central Season Preview, I said the Cubs would finish third in the Central. I thought they improved from 2006, but still had bullpen issues and needed Mark Prior and Kerry Wood to be healthy to be a contender. My bold prediction was Rich Hill would become the team’s second-best starter in a breakout season. What has gone right: The pitching staff has been surprisingly good despite more injuries to Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. The Cubs rank seventh in MLB in ERA (3.95), second in strikeouts (662) and are tied for first in opponents’ batting average (.241). Rich Hill was on his way to the breakout season I expected (3-1, 1.77 ERA, 29 K in five April starts), but hasn’t been consistent over the past couple months. He is still having a fine season (5-6, 3.81 ERA, 96 K) and may turn out to be the Cubs’ second-best starter when the season is over. Unlike Hill, ace Carlos Zambrano had a bad start to the season, but he has been back to normal lately. He’s tied for the league lead in wins (10) and is headed for a massive payday when he hits free agency this winter. Free agent signings Ted Lilly (8-4, 3.67 ERA, 98 K) and Jason Marquis (6-5, 3.67 ERA) have been key to keeping this team alive. In the lineup, Mike Fontenot (.356-3-16 in 104 AB) has been an unexpected surprise at second base. What has gone wrong: Some would argue All Stars Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano are clearly what has gone right for the team, but I disagree. While Lee is fifth in the NL in batting average (.330), his six home runs are not getting the job done. As for Soriano, he is on pace for a .309-29-64-25 SB season – not exactly what the Cubs were hoping they’d get after he hit 46 homers and stole 41 bases for Washington last year. If it wasn’t for Soriano’s big June (.336, 11 homers), his numbers would look much worse. Along with Soriano, fellow outfielders Jacque Jones (.233-2-20) and rookie Felix Pie (.216-2-18 in 139 AB) have been major disappointments. Pie is a highly regarded prospect who isn’t getting the job done and Jones was nearly dealt to Then there was Michael Barrett, who was involved in a dugout fight with Carlos Zambrano, forcing the Cubs to deal a solid catcher to the Padres for nearly nothing. What to expect in the second half: Lou Piniella deserves credit for keeping the Cubs above .500 and just 4 ½ games back of Dealing for Ken Griffey and Eric Gagne would plug those holes, but neither player will be easy to acquire. With all the money they have poured into the offense by signing Lee, Ramirez and Soriano to huge deals, it appears keeping Zambrano past this season will be unlikely. The window to win may close if Zambrano bolts, so GM Jim Hendry would be wise to go for it.
Preseason report: In my NL Central Season Preview, I said the Cardinals would finish second in the Central. I thought they had a lot of questions to answer, especially in the rotation, but having Pujols, Carpenter, manager Tony La Russa and GM Walt Jocketty would keep them in contention. My bold prediction was Albert Pujols would win the first Triple Crown since 1967. What has gone right: One of the big questions the Cardinals faced was if closer Jason Isringhausen would be able to come back healthy this year. With the team counting on Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper to go from the bullpen to the rotation, Izzy staying on the field was important. Isringhausen has erased the doubts by saving 17 games and posting a 1.53 ERA. Chris Duncan had a surprising rookie season last year, hitting for much more power (22 HR in 280 AB) than anyone expected. This year, he is showing last season was no fluke, hitting .288-16-47. What has gone wrong: While the Tigers are building from last year’s success, the World Series champs have fallen apart. It began when Chris Carpenter went on the DL after making just one start and eventually had elbow surgery. Adam Wainwright, one of the heroes of last year’s postseason, looked ready to become a solid no. 2 or 3 starter, but he has been inconsistent (7-7, 4.66 ERA). There wasn’t much reason to think Kip Wells was going to be great, but he has been terrible (3-11, 5.92 ERA) after a decent start to the season. The one player St. Louis was most counting on making big improvements, Anthony Reyes, has been a huge letdown (0-10, 6.40 ERA). It’s no surprise the Cards rank 26th in MLB ERA (4.71). The offense is ranked 26th too, in runs (368). My prediction of Pujols having a Triple Crown season was perhaps my worst, but I maintain he’s still the best player in the league. Even in a down year, Pujols (.310-16-52) is on pace to become the only player in baseball history to begin his career with seven-straight seasons of 30 homers and 100 RBI. Scott Rolen (.267-4-38) and Adam Kennedy (.210-0-14) are having their worst seasons and Jim Edmonds (.238-7-24) has played in only 56 games. Even the defense has been bad, committing 64 errors, the fifth-most in MLB. What to expect in the second half: Chris Carpenter should be back after a couple more rehab starts and Mark Mulder will likely be able to come back at some point in August, but St. Louis is going to need the entire team to step up to make a big dent in the 7 ½ game-lead the Brewers have. I’d bet the house Pujols will have a strong second half, but the Cardinals must get better production from the pitching staff and the rest of the lineup too. A couple trades could turn them into contenders, but the Cardinals don’t have the depth in their farm system to make anything significant happen.
Preseason report: In my NL Central Season Preview, I said the Pirates would finish sixth in the Central. I didn’t think they had the talent or payroll to be able to compete this season and thought Matt Capps could become the team’s closer. My bold prediction was Ronny Paulino would become one of the better offensive catchers in the NL and have a breakout season. What has gone right: The Pirates have two of the best young starters in the league, yet neither one made it to the All-Star Game. Ian Snell (7-5, 2.93 ERA, 93 K) and Tom Gorzelanny (9-4, 3.10 ERA), fifth and seventh in NL ERA respectively, somehow were not as good of choices as Freddy Sanchez. In the bullpen, Salomon Torres (5.14 ERA, 12 saves) struggled as I thought and Matt Capps (2.37 ERA, 9 saves) is the new closer. The staff benefits from a great fielding team as the Pirates are tied for the third-best fielding percentage in MLB (.987). Ryan Doumit (.305-6-21 in 167 AB) has been a great backup behind the plate. What has gone wrong: After winning the NL batting title last year, Freddy Sanchez (.296-2-32) has come back down to Earth. The Pirates’ top offseason acquisition, Adam LaRoche (.239-13-51), has rebounded after hitting .133 in April, but he hasn’t given the offense the boost it was expecting as the team is 27th in MLB runs (367). Also contributing to the offensive woes are On the mound, lefty Zach Duke struggled last year after an amazing rookie season in 2005 (8-2, 1.81 ERA). The Pirates were hoping he’d bounce back this year, but he has been very disappointing so far (3-7, 5.79 ERA). What to expect in the second half: For a team that hasn’t finished with a .500 record since 1992, reaching that milestone would be a good starting point in turning the franchise in the right direction. With two great starters, a new young closer and better second halves from Bay, LaRoche and Paulino, winning 81 games is possible. Steven Pearce is having a monster season in the minors (.330-22-75 combined at A and AA), but the Pirates will have a hard time finding a place to play him as he’s a first baseman.
Preseason report: In my NL Central Season Preview, I said the Astros would finish fifth in the Central. I thought their window of opportunity had closed and Hunter Pence was nearly ready to take over in center field. My bold prediction was GM Tim Purpura and manager Phil Garner would be fired. What has gone right: Rookie Hunter Pence has easily been the best part of an otherwise down year for the Astros. He is the NL leader in batting average (.342) and has 11 homers, 42 RBI, seven steals and 23 doubles in just 64 games. Pence is the frontrunner in the NL ROY race and gives Second baseman Craig Biggio became the 27th member of the 3,000-hit club with a single June 28. Unfortunately, the moment was a little strange as he was thrown out at second base trying to stretch the hit into a double. As with most big milestones, it opens up the debate whether the player is a Hall of Famer. I could give several reasons why Biggio is a no-brainer, but I’ll keep it short and simple. Biggio is the only player in major league history to have at least 600 doubles, 250 home runs, 3,000 hits and 400 stolen bases. He’s also the ninth of the 27 members of the 3,000-hit club to play with one team, which is something to be admired in today’s game. What has gone wrong: The Astros lost Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. The solution was to trade for Jason Jennings and sign Woody Williams. After a career year in 2006 when he mashed 45 homers, Lance Berkman (.263-15-57) is on pace for his worst season. A great 2005 season (.283-36-101) led to high expectations for third baseman Morgan Ensberg last year, but he struggled and is having another poor season this year (.210-7-25). What to expect in the second half: Brad Lidge (2.34 ERA, 0 saves) went on DL June 16 with strained oblique and returned today. He will be aggressively pursued at the trade deadline and given the Astros’ needs, it would be smart to deal him. Even if GM Tim Purpura can get a good return for Lidge, I think my prediction will come true and he’ll be fired. Manager Phil Garner will likely be gone too.
Preseason report: In my NL Central Season Preview, I said the Reds would finish fourth in the Central. I thought they should have gotten a better return for trading Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns last season and the bullpen was shaky as a result. My bold prediction was Homer Bailey would get called up near the All-Star break and while he’d be inconsistent, he’d also look dominant in many starts. What has gone right: Ken Griffey (.286-23-59) is on pace for a 40-homer season, which would be his first since 2000. Griffey, just 14 home runs short of 600 for his career, is third in the NL is homers and started in the All-Star game. Adam Dunn (.258-24-58) is also on pace for a 40-homer season, which would be his fourth-consecutive season of hitting 40 bombs. The Reds’ other outfielder, Rule 5 pick Josh Hamilton, has also been a bright spot hitting .279-14-30 in just 208 at-bats. Reds’ ace Aaron Harang (9-2, 3.67 ERA, 112 K) is having another strong season and Brandon Phillips (.276-17-47-16 SB) is quietly bettering his breakout season from last year. David Weathers has also been effective as the closer, saving 17 games with a 3.27 ERA. What has gone wrong: Other than Harang and Weathers, the rest of the pitching has been awful, ranking 27th in MLB ERA (4.77). Bronson Arroyo (3-9, 4.84 ERA), who led the NL in innings pitched and was in the top six in ERA and strikeouts last year, hasn’t come close to the success he had last season. Homer Bailey (2-2, 6.99 ERA) got the call-up I expected, but there have been too many disastrous outings and not enough dominant ones. He was sent down to the minors during the All-Star break, but should be called up again soon. What to expect in the second half: Teams looking to add a bat at the trade deadline will be looking at acquiring either Griffey or Dunn. However, Griffey must approve any deal and although Dunn has a $13 million club option for 2008, it will be voided from his contract if he’s traded. Teams will be hesitant to give top value for Griffey given his injury history and the Reds may not want to deal him with 600 career home runs so close. The Reds also may not be able to get good value for Dunn as he’ll be a rental player and his high strikeout rate is sure to scare off potential suitors. Whether *stats and records are current prior to games played for July 12
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