Boston Red Sox (53-31)

Preseason report:

In my AL East Season Preview, I said the Red Sox would finish first in the East. I thought the signing of Dice-K was huge and the additions of J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo gave the lineup great balance. My bold prediction was J.D. Drew would have a career year.

What has gone right:

The pitching (3.69 team ERA, third-best in MLB) has been key for Boston as Josh Beckett (12-2, 3.44 ERA, 92 K) has finally emerged as an ace, Dice-K (10-5, 3.53 ERA, 119 K) has lived up to the hype, Jonathan Papelbon is having another great season (20 saves, 1.69 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) and Hideki Okajima (0.88 ERA in 38 games) has been the best middle reliever in baseball. The offense hasn’t been as good as expected, but Dustin Pedroia is hitting well (.322) and David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Manny Ramirez made the All-Star team.

What has gone wrong:

I couldn’t have been more wrong about J.D. Drew (.265-6-33) and Julio Lugo (.192-4-38-20 SB) as both players have been disasters. Even though Manny Ramirez (.289-11-45) and David Ortiz (.313-13-49) made the All-Star team, Ramirez shouldn’t have made the team and is on pace for his worst season since he was a rookie in 1994. Ortiz is having a fine season, but his numbers are a disappointment after hitting 54 homers and driving in 137 runs last year. Curt Schilling (6-4, 4.20 ERA) is no longer an ace and is on the DL with shoulder problems. He should be back sometime near the end of July.

What to expect in the second half:

With a 12-game lead on both New York and Toronto, it will take a major collapse for Boston to screw this one up. However, while the Sox are a lock for the postseason, they are looking to make sure they hang on as long as possible. Boston has been actively pursuing another starter, preferably Mark Buehrle, and wouldn’t mind adding another bullpen arm. If they can improve an already strong pitching staff and players like Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew heat up in the second half, the Red Sox could be the AL rep in the World Series.

New York Yankees (40-42)

Preseason report:

In my AL East Season Preview, I said the Yankees would finish second in the East. I thought they would have the best lineup in baseball, but the rotation had too many question marks and even the likely return of Roger Clemens to the Bronx wouldn’t be enough to fix it. My bold prediction was the Yankees would miss the playoffs for the first time since 1994.

What has gone right:

The lineup hasn’t been the best in baseball, but is fourth in MLB in runs (437) and tied for fourth in OPS (.789). A-Rod (.314-28-80) is on pace for the best season of his career, which is really saying something. While the focus surrounds Bonds breaking Aaron’s record and Griffey reaching 600 homers, Rodriguez is just eight homers shy of 500 at age 31 (he’ll turn 32 July 27). Jorge Posada (.324-9-45) is showing no signs of his age (35) and Derek Jeter is third in the AL with a .341 average.

What has gone wrong:

It’s hard to know where to begin. Kei Igawa (2-2, 7.14 ERA) was sent down to the minors after a horrible start to the season, Carl Pavano made just two starts before having elbow surgery that forces him to miss the rest of the season, Mike Mussina (4-6, 4.62 ERA) is no longer the pitcher he once was, Kyle Farnsworth (4.59 ERA) has been bad, Johnny Damon (.249-5-26) has battled injury and inconsistency, and Mariano Rivera (11 saves, 3.94 ERA) and Bobby Abreu (.260-5-39) are having their worst seasons since their rookie years.

Throw in Jason Giambi (.262-7-23) experiencing foot problems and his involvement in the steroids controversy, Roger Clemens big paycheck compared with his performance (2-3, 4.26 ERA) and Philip Hughes hitting the DL after nearly throwing a no-hitter, and you have a season of disaster for the Yankees.

What to expect in the second half:

It will be a hard pill for GM Brian Cashman and owner George Steinbrenner to swallow, but with New York 8 1/2 games out of Wild Card and 12 games out of division, the Yankees need to be sellers instead of buyers at the deadline for the first time in a long time.

It’s tough to know what parts they will be willing to trade, but Rivera, Posada and Abreu will be free agents at the end of the year. Even if the Yankees want to bring back players like Rivera and Posada next year, they would be smart to deal them for prospects to bolster their farm system and start building for the future.

Toronto Blue Jays (41-43)

Preseason report:

In my AL East Season Preview, I said the Blue Jays would finish fourth in the East. I thought they needed to add a starter in the offseason to replace Ted Lilly and instead they signed Frank Thomas. My bold prediction was A.J. Burnett would have career season with 16 wins, a 3.35 ERA and 210 K.

What has gone right:

After his season was derailed last year with a staph infection, Alex Rios (.295-17-50-9 SB) has emerged as the best player on the Blue Jays. Aaron Hill has provided solid defense at second base and has given them unexpected production at the plate (.265-9-47-23 2B). The loss of B.J. Ryan created a need at closer, which has been filled nicely by Jeremy Accardo (10 saves, 2.67 ERA). Young starters Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum have been showing signs that they can be fixtures in the Toronto rotation, and Matt Stairs (.297-13-33 in 185 AB) has been a pleasant surprise.

What has gone wrong:

Injuries have hit Toronto hard as B.J. Ryan was lost early in the season and then had Tommy John surgery, Lyle Overbay is on the DL with a broken hand, Reed Johnson has missed most of the season after having back surgery and Gustavo Chacin is on the DL with shoulder problems. A.J. Burnett could have been on his way to a career year (5-6, 4.31 ERA, 106 K), but he’s is on the DL once again -- this time until at least early August with shoulder problems.

The Blue Jays missed out on signing a starter and then inked Vernon Wells to one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. So far, Wells (.255-12-46) has been a disappointment.

What to expect in the second half:

The Blue Jays needed a lot of things to fall into place to have a shot at contending in the East and those things simply haven’t happened. The injuries will be too much to overcome, so this will be a team spinning its wheels for the remainder of the season. The most Toronto can hope for is a healthy return for everyone, continued progress from McGowan and Marcum in the rotation, and a strong second half from Vernon Wells to justify his fat paycheck.

Baltimore Orioles (37-47)

Preseason report:

In my AL East Season Preview, I said the Orioles would finish third in the East. I predicted breakout seasons from Nick Markakis and Adam Loewen and said Erik Bedard could contend for the AL Cy Young. My bold prediction was Adam Loewen would win 15 games with an ERA below 4.00 and 180 K.

What has gone right:

Erik Bedard (6-4, 3.67 ERA, 134 K) won’t be in contention for the Cy Young, but he leads the majors in strikeouts and has been great this season. Jeremy Guthrie, a 28-year-old rookie acquired off waivers from the Indians in January, has been one of the biggest surprises of the season and ranks second in the AL in ERA (2.63) and first in WHIP (0.89). Nick Markakis (.274-9-48-23 2B) has been very good and with a strong second half, he could finish .280-25-110-40 2B. Brian Roberts, Baltimore’s only All-Star, leads the AL in stolen bases (26).

What has gone wrong:

A lot hasn’t gone as planned for the Orioles, who fired manager Sam Perlozzo June 18. First, my big breakout pick, Adam Loewen (2-0, 3.56 ERA), was sidelined for the season after a stress fracture was discovered in his elbow. His cast is off and the Orioles expect he’ll be ready for next season.

The team’s two big free-agent signings, Aubrey Huff (.262-6-38) and Danys Baez (0-4, 6.52 ERA in 31 games) have been awful and closer Chris Ray (4-6, 5.02 ERA, 14 saves) has been unreliable. Corey Patterson (.240-2-21-16 SB) and Ramon Hernandez (.245-4-34 in 45 games) were coming off career years in 2006 and haven’t come close to matching their success from last season.

Starter Daniel Cabrera (6-9, 5.15 ERA, 56 BB) isn't having the breakout season Baltimore was expecting and Miguel Tejada (.306-7-31) is out until late August with a fractured wrist. Tejada’s injury ended his consecutive-games-played streak of 1,152 games, which was the fifth longest in baseball history.

What to expect in the second half:

Tejada’s injury hurts the Orioles’ chances of making a deal this season, but doesn’t make it impossible. Baltimore has been shopping him and a deal may be made after non-waiver trade deadline. With or without Miggy, the O’s will attempt to make a run second place in the division, which isn’t impossible given the struggles of New York and Toronto. If Baltimore can get some more reliable pitching from the relievers and its offense can kick it up a notch, finishing .500 is in reach and that could be good enough to finish second.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays (33-51)

Preseason report:

In my AL East Season Preview, I said the Devil Rays would finish last in the East. I thought they should have traded their depth of offensive talent to acquire more pitching. My bold prediction was James Shields would have a great sophomore season posting a strong ERA and 175 K.

What has gone right:

James Shields (6-4, 3.76 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 110 K) has been even better than I expected and I had bold expectations for him. Former Rangers’ first-round pick Carlos Pena (.283-19-49) appears to finally be fulfilling his promise at 29 years old after tries with Oakland, Detroit and Boston. Cases could be made for Shields, Pena or B.J. Upton (.320-9-31-13 SB) as the team’s All-Star, but Carl Crawford (.286-6-51-21 SB) will make his second appearance.

Rookie Delmon Young (.275-9-45-6 SB) hasn’t shown big-time power and speed numbers yet, but given his age, he is having a strong season. Shortstop Brendan Harris (.305-8-36) and closer Al Reyes (17 saves, 4.09 ERA) also have been pleasant surprises.

What has gone wrong:

The Devil Rays were fielding several offers for their surplus of outfielders this offseason, most notably Rocco Baldelli. Other talks surrounded troubled youngster Elijah Dukes. However, despite glaring needs in the rotation and simply too many position players to play at one time, GM Andy Friedman didn’t make a deal.

Baldelli (.204-5-12) struggled before ending up on the DL with a hamstring injury and Dukes (.190-10-21) was put on the temporary inactive list last month because he reportedly threatened to kill his wife in May and then a woman said he was the father of her unborn child in June. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has the worst ERA in the majors (5.74) thanks in part to Edwin Jackson (1-9, 7.26 ERA) and Jae Seo (3-4, 8.13 ERA). The Rays expected improvement from 23-year-old catcher Dioner Navarro and he has been a big disappointment (.181-1-12).

What to expect in the second half:

Maybe Friedman thought he could move Baldelli or Dukes at the deadline, but that is no longer an option. If Tampa Bay is ever going to be able to compete in this division, it will need to add pitching. Carl Crawford is arguably the Rays’ most-valuable asset, but he could land them the young pitching that could turn this franchise into contenders in a couple years.

Even without a deal at the deadline, Tampa Bay has something worth watching as Upton, Young, Shields and Kazmir continue to develop and it finds out if Carlos Pena is for real.

*stats and records are current prior to games played for July 6

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