New York Mets (42-32)

Preseason report:

In my NL East Season Preview, I said the Mets would miss the playoffs and finish second in the East. I thought the lineup would be the NL’s best, but the rotation would be a disaster. My bold prediction was rookie Mike Pelfrey would emerge as the team’s best starting pitcher.

What has gone right:

The pitching has been way better than I thought, ranking second in the NL in ERA (3.70). John Maine has been huge, emerging as the staff ace going 8-4 with a 2.87 ERA. Oliver Perez hasn’t been great, but has been much better (7-6, 3.16 ERA) than his ’06 season (3-13, 6.55 ERA). Orlando Hernandez, despite a trip to the DL with a shoulder injury, also has pitched well (3-3, 2.77 ERA) and Jorge Sosa has been solid (6-3, 3.79 ERA). Shortstop Jose Reyes leads the majors in stolen bases with 38.

What has gone wrong:

My bold prediction was way off and Pelfrey was sent back to the minors after starting the season 0-5 with a 6.53 ERA. Carlos Delgado has been bad (.225-11-42), Moises Alou hasn’t played since May 12 and the offense ranks 6^th in the NL in runs. Tom Glavine (6-5, 4.38 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) may be running out of gas at age 41 and is certainly no ace.

What to expect in the second half:

The Mets are involved in trade talks with both Chicago teams to acquire either Carlos Zambrano or Mark Buehrle, both free agents at the end of the year. They have the farm system to make something happen and GM Omar Minaya knows this race is too close not to make a move. Even though they made the playoffs last year, the Mets failed to add a starter at the deadline and that cost them a chance at a championship. A Carlos Zambrano for Mike Pelfrey and Lastings Milledge deal seems to make sense for both parties, but you never know what other deals will be offered to the Cubs. If New York can land Zambrano along with the return of Pedro Martinez, it would be big, but it wouldn’t guarantee them the division because the Phillies are likely to make a deal at the deadline as well.

Philadelphia Phillies (39-36)

Preseason report:

In my NL East Season Preview, I said the Phillies would finish first in the East. I didn’t get a chance to post my postseason predictions, but I thought this team would win the World Series. I touted the starting pitching, saying Cole Hamels would emerge as the NL’s best left-handed pitcher. I said if things went wrong for Philadelphia this season, it would be because of a breakdown in the bullpen. My bold prediction was Cole Hamels would win 18 games and lead the NL in strikeouts.

What has gone right:

After a bad start, Philly is just 3 ½ games back of New York. The Phillies lead the NL in runs (382) and are second to Milwaukee in OPS (.779). Barring a second-half meltdown, my Hamels prediction looks spot on. It would be very hard to argue he’s not the best lefty in the NL. Hamels is also just two strikeouts behind Jake Peavy for the NL lead and his nine wins put him on pace for 18 this season. Aaron Rowand (.315-10-39) is having his best season since 2004 and Shane Victorino is on pace for 45 steals.

What has gone wrong:

Other than Hamels and veteran Jamie Moyer, the pitching has been a complete disaster. I felt like there might be a bullpen breakdown, but I had no idea things would turn out the way they have. Closer Tom Gordon has pitched in just nine games this season, going on the DL in early May. GM Pat Gillick gambled by moving starter Brett Myers into the bullpen to replace Gordon and then Myers went on the DL in late May after hurting his shoulder in a game against the Marlins.

In addition to the bullpen issues, new starters Freddy Garcia (1-5, 5.90 ERA) and Adam Eaton (7-5, 5.63 ERA) have been really bad and Jon Lieber (3-6, 4.73) hasn’t been much help either. Lieber ruptured a tendon in his foot recently and the latest reports claim he may be out for the season. Of course, Ryan Howard spent some time on the DL and is hitting just .253 and Pat Burrell (.205-8-31) isn’t earning his $13 million paycheck.

What to expect in the second half:

With all that has gone wrong for the Phillies, it’s amazing they are still in the race. Gordon and Myers are set to return around the All-Star break and the Phils have a trade chip in Aaron Rowand, a free agent at the end of the year, to deal for more pitching help. Philadelphia currently has outfielder Michael Bourn (.304, 10 steals in 46 at-bats) playing well in limited duty and would move Shane Victorino to center to replace Rowand. A Rowand for Scott Linebrink (also a free agent at the end of the season) deal was tossed around before the season and it seems to still make sense now. The Padres have depth in the bullpen and although they have a good center fielder in Mike Cameron, their corner outfielders (Jose Cruz and Terrmel Sledge) are liabilities. No one has emerged as a dominant team in the NL and if they can stay healthy and get some better pitching out of the end of the rotation, the Phillies could still win the division and make good on my World Series prediction.

Atlanta Braves (39-38)

Preseason report:

In my NL East Season Preview, I said the Braves would finish third in the East. I thought the rotation would be improved with a comeback season from Tim Hudson and liked the additions to the bullpen. However, I said they were one good player away from contention. My bold prediction was a comeback from Hudson along with Rafael Soriano taking over as closer by the All-Star break.

What has gone right:

Tim Hudson (7-5, 3.29 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) seems to be on his way to a comeback season and John Smoltz (8-4, 3.14 ERA, 94.2 IP, 83 K) keeps pitching like an ace at age 40. Second baseman Kelly Johnson (.271-8-37-44 BB) has been a pleasant surprise and Edgar Renteria is having a great season (.323-10-36-49 R). Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.320-2-8 in 75 AB) has been a good backup to Brian McCann behind the plate and is seeing time at first base.

What has gone wrong:

After a breakout 2006 season (.333-24-93), Brian McCann (.256-6-39) signed a big extension and hasn’t been able to come close to last year’s monster campaign. Andruw Jones (.197-11-42) seemed primed for a big year heading into free agency, but he has been struggling all year and is on pace for his worst year since he was 20 years old in 1997. Atlanta was also hoping Jeff Francoeur (.273-8-46) and Chuck James (6-7, 4.29 ERA) would build on their breakout 2006 seasons and both players have regressed.

What to expect in the second half:

Bob Wickman (1-2, 3.24 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 25 IP, 19 K) has remained the closer despite Rafael Soriano (2-0, 2.94 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 33.2 IP, 31 K) posting better stats, so I’m not sure what the thinking is by Bobby Cox. Soriano could still become the stopper before the season is over.

The next month will be huge for the Braves as they determine whether they are buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. While they are still in the race, they don’t have the farm system to go out and land a big-name player at the deadline that could put them in the playoffs. It will be a tough decision for GM John Schuerholz, but he’d be best suited to be a seller and get what he can for Andruw Jones and may want to test the market for Bob Wickman and Chipper Jones.

Florida Marlins (36-40)

Preseason report:

In my NL East Season Preview, I said the Marlins would finish fourth in the East. I said Florida had problems in center and right field, and Jorge Julio wasn’t a safe bet as closer. I thought the injury to Josh Johnson and lack of offseason moves would prevent another surprise season. My bold prediction was Dontrelle Willis would be dealt at the trade deadline.

What has gone right:

Miguel Cabrera (.330-17-54) is doing his usual thing and Hanley Ramirez (.320-10-25-62 R-22 SB) has solidified his place among the top players in the league after his NL ROY season last year. Dan Uggla (.261-15-47) is proving last year was no fluke and Kevin Gregg (2.74 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 14 SV) has pitched well as the team’s closer.

What has gone wrong:

In addition to having Josh Johnson injured for most of the first half of the season, the Marlins won’t have Anibal Sanchez for the rest of the season because of shoulder surgery. Sanchez only pitched in six games this year after a terrific rookie season, going 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA and throwing a no hitter in 2006. On top of missing Johnson and Sanchez, staff ace Dontrelle Willis (7-6, 4.90 ERA) is having his worst season and Scott Olsen (5-6, 4.76 ERA) hasn’t been as good as he was last year as a rookie. Jorge Julio was a disaster as closer, posting a 12.54 ERA before being traded to Colorado.

What to expect in the second half:

I would expect my prediction to come true and see the Marlins deal Willis at the trade deadline. They’ll regret not trading him last year as his value won’t be as high given his struggles this season. However, his big salary will prompt Florida to make a deal and teams looking for starting pitching will hope Willis can turn things around in a new environment. The Mets and Red Sox are aggressively looking for starting pitching right now, but both seem to be looking hard at Carlos Zambrano and Mark Buehrle. Willis would be a good fit in Philadelphia, who could package Shane Victorino and a pitching prospect for Willis as the Marlins desperately need a young center fielder. The Yankees are always a possibility and don’t rule out the Rangers, who aren’t in contention, but are desperate for an experienced left-handed starter.

Washington Nationals (32-44)

Preseason report:

In my NL East Season Preview, I said the Nationals would finish last in the East. I said they would have the worst lineup and rotation in baseball. I thought Ryan Zimmerman was the team’s only star and wondered why Washington tried so hard to get a team just to run it into the ground. My bold prediction was the team would lose 110 games and GM Jim Bowden would be fired during the season.

What has gone right:

Released by the Tigers in September last season, Dmitri Young has been a major surprise hitting .338-7-36-20 2B replacing injured first baseman Nick Johnson. After a rough start, Ryan Zimmerman (.247-12-42) has turned things around.

What has gone wrong:

GM Jim Bowden hasn’t done much right in Washington, but his acquisition of Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez along with Ryan Wagner for Brendan Harris, Gary Majewski and Bill Bray last year from the Reds looked like robbery. However, even Bowden can’t catch a break as Kearns (.258-5-26) and Lopez (.237-3-29-9 SB) have been awful this year. Cristian Guzman (.329-2-14) was finally off to a good start, but he’s done for the season after having thumb surgery. Ryan Zimmerman, known as a good defender, has struggled this year in the field and his 12 errors are tied for second most among all third basemen. John Patterson (1-5, 7.47 ERA), who is easily the team’s best starter, has battled injuries this year and made just seven starts.

What to expect in the second half:

I wasn’t exactly right about the Nats having the worst lineup and rotation statistically, but I’d still make the same argument despite the numbers. Washington’s offense ranks 29^th in runs (292), 30^th in home runs (46), 27^th in batting average (.249) and 29^th in OPS (.680). The White Sox are last in runs, batting average and OPS, making them the worst offense on paper. However, I’d take a lineup with Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye over the Nats any day of the week. As for the pitching staff, Washington ranks 23^rd in ERA (4.68) and 5^th in most walks allowed (279) with Tampa Bay and Texas ranking as the worst pitching teams. Yet I’d much rather have Tampa Bay’s staff including Kazmir and Shields and even Texas has a better group of guys than the Nats.

I also was off target with my 110-loss prediction as they would finish with 94 losses at their current pace. Needless to say, Washington has been slightly better than expected, which was awful. The rest of the season offers little hope other than the return of Nick Johnson sometime in the second half. If I’m a Nats fan, I’m keeping my fingers crossed that Jim Bowden is shown the door either at some point in the next couple months or at the end of the season.

*stats and records are current prior to games played for June 26

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