I predicted in an earlier column that Leppert would get into the run-off. I, and many others, had penciled in Ed Oakley as one of his possible opponents. Still, this election was full of surprises and lessons about the Dallas electorate. For example, I predicted that southern sector Black voters would turn-out in huge numbers and I was dead wrong about that. I was not surprised to see Tom Leppert out duel Max Wells for Black voters. I had predicted that Leppert’s first class Black consulting team and his outreach to the Black faith-based community would get him Black votes and it did. This provides us with one of many major lessons about the Dallas electorate. There is no John Price dominated political machine able to turn-out the Black vote for any candidate he chooses in the southern sector.

The John Price group, which primarily consists of Mr. Price, Demetris Sampson, and political consultant Kathy Neeley, were rumored to have sway over a $300,000 budget to get out the Black vote for Max Wells. Ms. Neeley’s published fee of over $12,000 a month was probably the largest consulting fee ever paid to a Black consultant to get out the Black vote in Dallas history. But they did not deliver. As of this writing, all of the numbers are not in yet, but it is clear that Max Wells, who was depending on a strong southern sector showing, did not do near as well as he expected with Black voters. I have long said that Mr. Wells would have problems attracting the Black vote because of his weak history in dealing with the Black community. His endorsement from several former Black City council members as well as Mr. Price’s endorsement did little to help Wells in the Black community.

While many in the media all but guaranteed Mayor Pro Tem Don Hill a place in the run-off, I remained skeptical. I am a great fan of Councilman Hill but I never felt his campaign generated the kind of excitement with Black voters that he needed to propel him into the run-offs. I have no doubt that the lingering FBI investigation cost Don Hill a serious shot at becoming Dallas’ next mayor if for no other reason then the investigation caused Hill to start his campaign too late. Don was also hurt by the poor turn-out from Black voters in the southern sector.

The battle between Oakley and Leppert will once again put the Black electorate on center stage. Oakley is expected to get the endorsement of Don Hill and quite possibly the John Price Group may join the Ed Oakley camp. There is talk that Oakley will attempt to make the run-off election a battle between a southern sector Democrat and a North Dallas Republican. That strategy could be problematic for the Oakley camp. Most political observers are aware that neither the Democratic nor the Republican Party has any involvement in Dallas ’ non-partisan city elections. I consider the tactic of evoking partisan politics as fear mongering, designed to frighten Black voters into voting against Tom Leppert. One only has to remember that Mayor Laura Miller is a prominent Democrat who did not enjoy any goodwill with the Black electorate. Former Mayor Ron Kirk, also a prominent Democrat, enjoyed wide support from local Republican voters. In other words, political party affiliation has proven to have no influence on Dallas mayors.

If Mr. Oakley aligns himself with the controversial John Price Group, he will lose support from many Black voters who are opposed to Mr. Price. The Oakley campaign will also have a hard time selling the Democrat versus Republican scenario to Black voters since Mr. Price has just recently supported Max Wells who is also a Republican.

I expect a rough and possibly nasty campaign with a great deal of fear mongering about gays taking over city hall if Ed Oakley is elected or Republicans taking over city hall if Tom Leppert is elected. Both candidates have too much going for them for either of their campaigns to descend into fear mongering. And, no, I don’t know just how large the Black vote will be for this all important run-off election. But I do know there is no Black political machine run by Commissioner John Wiley Price that can guarantee the Black vote. At least that is how I see it from South Of the Trinity.

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