The long term historical trends regarding this “ultimate game” can swing wildly. During the decade and a half of NFC total dominance blowouts happened regularly. But of late underdogs have hung in there producing some very good and close games. Favorites are 3-6-1 ATS over the last decade.

BUT—such stats are yearly things and present a small sampling.

Several historical game and team trends are much more relvant.

• Do you foresee either team reaching 27 points in the game? In Super Bowl. History 23 tems have scored 27 or more. Those teams are 22-1 SU and 20-2-1 ATS
• 31 of the 40 Super Bowls have been decided by 7 points or more. Despite recent history you must consider the very real possibility of a blowout on Sunday
• Ten of Indy’s 16 wins this season are by 7 points or less and only once have they won by more than 7 away from home.
• The 6 AFC Playoff teams combined to go 21-3 SU vs the NFC this year (Dallas’ win over Indy was one of these 3 defeats)
• The 6 NFC Playoff teams went 10-14 SU vs the AFC opponents (Dallas went 3-1. No other NFC playoff entrant had a winning record).
• Overall the AFC went 40-24 SU vs the NFC this season
• Before Bears stars DT Tommie Harris was lost for the season to injury, Chicago permitted 12.5 PPG. Since his injury they’ve allowed 24ppg
• Forget those terrible Indy regular season rushing defense numbers (173 yards allowed per game which was the worst in the entire NFL). In the playoffs they’re allowing 73 yards per contest and permit 7 less points per game.
• Neither team allows their QB to be sacked…Neither side finished in the top 15 in the league in sacking opposing QBs
• It’s a myth that the Bears run the ball well. Their 3.8 yards per rush rates 23^rd in the NFL. What the Bears actually do is run the ball A LOT!
• Indy has very poor kick coverage! Oh, oh! They must stop one of the league’s to kickoff and punt return guys in Devin Hester. Indy finished 30^th in kickoff coverage and #31 in stopping punt returners.

Some key thoughts about this matchup:

• Chicago’s NOT built as a “come-from-behind” team. If Rex Grossman MUST pass that means the Bears MUST be in trouble
• The Bears often benefit from excellent field position given them by solid special teams and defensive play. To win Chicago must continue to win this battle. The Bears are not built to sustain huge drives.
• The Bears returners and dfense scored 58 points this season WOW! Scores like that incredibly inspire teams.
• Two really good kickers here. Very little edge to Indy even though they have the more experienced of the two.
• Bears corner Charles Tillman might be the player Manning picks on
• WRs Harrison and Wayne get huge publicity. But in their 3 playoff victories, Indy’s TEs and RBs have caught 42 passes. YIKES! Watch TE Dallas Clark in particular
• Chicago lives on winning the turnover battle
• In 11 games where Peyton Manning has been favored by 6 or more vs an NFC Team, Indy is 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS.

The Pick

I really like Indy big here. There’s an enormous AFC/NFC disparity. I believe at least 4 and perhaps as many as 5 or 6 AFC teams would be favored in this game over the Bears.

Chicago runs the “Tampa 2” defense a scheme the Colts practice against everyday because they run an identical defense. Chicago does rate an upset chance IF they create something big with their special teams and “D”.

But, I feel Manning and the Colts cleared a huge hurdle with that rally over New England.

DOUBLE PLAY: INDY MINUS THE POINTS

LEAN TO: CHICAGO/INDY OVER

PROPOSITION: Under the total of 4 combined sacks

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