Reading press accounts, one would think this was 1973. In the wake of the Sharpstown stock scandal and a redistricting cycle, about half the House members did not return for another session.

But what happened in Tuesday’s election wasn’t a tidal wave. It was a warning shot. Much of what happened in the election was a continuation of trends already underway. A lot of it related to local issues, not statewide politics.

In short, rumors of Speaker Tom Craddick’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Additionally, this election cycle is not as bad for conservatives as some in the press would like the public to believe. Yes, some Republicans coming into the House in 2007 are more moderate than their predecessors. But some are more conservative. When the net changes to the House membership are analyzed seat-by-seat, one or two seats may have shifted to the left. Noteworthy, but not a tsunami.

The Parent PAC

Much has been made of the success of the Texas Parent PAC - a political action committee with ties to school administrators - in recent Republican primaries. But the success of parent PAC candidates is not as bad for conservatives or for Craddick as some might think.

A lot of people are discussing Susan King’s victory over Kevin Christian in House District 71. But King, an opponent of school vouchers, replaces Rep. Bob Hunter (R-Abilene), who vocally opposes vouchers and has friendly relations with the school community. This isn’t a pickup - the Parent PAC simply replaced one sympathetic member with another.

Others are making hay out of Jimmie Don Aycock’s victory over Dale Hopkins in House District 54, noting that one of James Leininger’s PACs gave money to Hopkins . Aycock’s campaign manager, however, is Michelle Wittenburg, Craddick’s former general counsel. Aycock is endorsed by the Texas Farm Bureau’s AGFUND and proudly calls himself conservative. When LSR interviewed Aycock, he said he is a loyal Republican who looks forward to working with the current Republican leadership.

Drew Darby ’s victory over Rep. Scott Campbell (R-San Angelo) probably is a setback for the leadership but not an unexpected one. This race turned on some personal mistakes Campbell made two years ago, not statewide policy issues.

Tan Parker narrowly leads (48 votes at last count) PAC-backed Anne Lakusta in a conservative Denton County district. This is noteworthy because it shows candidates with school board experience can do well even in very conservative districts. At the same time, Lakusta said she has a conservative record on the Lewisville school board and on her website announces support for pro-life policies and expanding the authority of the elected State Board of Education.

It may be fair to view the March primaries as evidence that the leadership’s education message is not selling back home. Certainly chairman Kent Grusendorf’s loss hurts the cause of education reform. Yes, the successful Parent PAC candidates do have views on school issues that differ from some in House leadership. But on non-school issues, some of the Parent PAC candidates espouse conservative positions and some have ties to the existing House leadership.

Certainly if the upcoming special sessions get botched, that could be bad news for leadership. But that hasn’t happened yet. The warning shot fired Tuesday didn’t signal the end for conservative leadership in the House.

The Democrats

Results in the Democratic runoff continue earlier trends and probably present more of a challenge to the House leadership.

Rep. Richard Raymond (D-Laredo), one of Craddick’s most vocal critics, easily won. One of Craddick’s chairmen, Rep. Al Edwards (D-Houston), lost to Borris Miles. Edwards is yet another Democrat who played ball with the GOP leadership losing a Democratic primary. And his bill to ban overly suggestive cheerleading, which was the topic of a skit on The Daily Show and lambasted on the House floor as “stupid” by fellow Houston Democrat Senfronia Thompson, probably didn’t help.

The key message here is that Democrats who represent Democratic districts should not get on the bad side of the trial lawyers. Democrats in swing districts, such as Rep. Patrick Rose (D-Dripping Springs), are given more flexibility by their party.

Some in the press have portrayed Miles’ victory as an instance of Democrats telling their own to stay away from the GOP brass. There’s some truth to that. But Rep. Vilma Luna (D-Corpus Christi), who has a great working relationship with Craddick, never faces opposition. That’s partly because of her effectiveness on local Corpus Christi issues, partly because of her ties with the plaintiff’s bar. (She helped work out a compromise on House Bill 4 in 2003 that made the “government standards” provision less hostile to plaintiffs.) She also votes with key Democratic constituencies on education and other issues important to Democrats.

As in 2003, Democrats in Democratic districts are expected to vote accordingly and should be careful about supporting Republican priorities. As in 2003, this year’s Democratic primaries will reduce the level of bipartisanship in the House.

CLOUT and other runoffs

In Houston , Citizens Lowering Our Unfair Taxes (CLOUT) went one for two. CLOUT pushes for lower caps on property tax appraisals. Executive director Edd Hendee is a talk show host on KSEV Radio (home of Sen.-elect Dan Patrick.) CLOUT endorsed John Zerwas over David Melanson. This race turned out to be a regional contest. Melanson handily won his home county of Wharton . Zerwas handily won his home county of Fort Bend . The race was decided by Waller County , which Zerwas narrowly won, and by higher turnout in Fort Bend .

The CLOUT-endorsed candidate, Mike Schofield, lost the race to replace retiring Rep. Joe Nixon (R-Houston). Instead, voters tapped Houston Community College Board member Jim Murphy, who had a long history in the district, ran a business improvement district there, and had a significant grassroots following.

This race makes the Houston political scene a bit more interesting. In March, Patrick’s influence dominated the primaries in most races. But in this race, he endorsed Schofield. Nixon endorsed Murphy, albeit late. Both Nixon and Murphy are clients of Houston political consultant Allen Blakemore, whereas Schofield used Patrick’s political consultant, Court Koenning. Patrick may have significant influence in Houston Republican politics but not necessarily total control.

Voters should be careful about reading ideological connotations into the Murphy-Schofield race. Both candidates actively supported property tax limits. Murphy had a respectable slate of conservative endorsements, including Nixon and Cathie Adams with the Texas Eagle Forum. This race was an example of the old-adage “all politics is local.”

In Austin , Bill Welch defeated Alex Castano for the Republican nod in District 47. Valinda Bolton knocked off Jason Earle for the Democratic slot. Both races were more about electoral effectiveness than ideology. Some statewide observers will be surprised at the defeat of Travis County Dist.Atty. Ronnie Earle’s son. But Bolton turned out to be much more effective at grassroots politics and a superior speaker. The HD 47 race is in play in the fall.

Lessons

Elected officials aren’t bulletproof. Voters can and will replace House members who have scandals over their heads, break their promises to their constituents, or vote against their districts. Leadership support alone is not enough to win. The other key lesson is, voters expect action on public school finance. The status quo likely will prevail if the special sessions go smoothly.  Shut down the schools, and all bets are off.  These are all trends that developed in the first round in March, but the runoffs confirmed that these trends are for real.

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