The primaries are over. A special session looms. Now what?

The governor's tax commission, headed by former Comptroller John Sharp is ready to go with draft recommendations next week. But the question at the Capitol is, will the Sharp commission's report build the consensus needed to break the school finance logjam?

Let's compare the Legislature's unsuccessful attempts at fixing the Texas property tax system with the successful efforts to reform the state's civil justice system.

Here's what has to happen to pass controversial legislation at the Capitol.

With tort reform, our top three elected officials – in law-making terms – all supported the broad outlines of the bill, which consisted of a cap on non-economic damages for medical malpractice lawsuits and a series of other tort law changes. There were minor differences on the details, but all three supported the core elements of what eventually became HB 4.

By contrast, at no time during the school finance process have Gov. Rick Perry, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, and Speaker Tom Craddick agreed on the core outline of a bill – or even on what the problem is to be solved.

Will the Sharp commission build that consensus?

How will Dewhurst and Craddick react to the Sharp commission's recommendations? That could be critical to the success or failure of the special session. Also, what proposals will Dewhurst's select committee come up with and will those get any traction on the other side of the chamber?

Two other debates on procedure are occurring at the Capitol right now. The first has gotten a lot of press – whether the special session should be a "tax only" special session or whether it should focus on broader education reforms. Dewhurst has publicly supported the latter approach.

The second debate, however, has gotten less press. Should the Legislature attempt to accomplish fundamental tax reform in a special session, or should it simply use the existing surplus to "buy down" about 15 cents of property taxes, declare victory, and go home? Under the latter theory, a rewrite of the tax code or education code would have to wait until the 2007 session, possibly later. Also under discussion, in connection with "spending the surplus," are some minor education spending increases or a modest teacher pay raise.

To some, the recent primary election shows that the voters want school finance fixed – permanently – and are willing to replace lawmakers who won't get the job done. Others interpret the election as a lesson on how dangerous it is to vote on a tax bill. They worry that the special session could needlessly cut up incumbent lawmakers heading into a general election. Thus they see spending the surplus as a safe option.

Of the Big Three, only Dewhurst has made public his support for a comprehensive bill. Craddick and Perry are guarded in their public comments on details, pending the issuance of the Sharp report.

To pass any bill, however, all three officials would likely have to agree on the basic approach the bill should take and on the objectives of the special session.

With tort reform, the vast majority of Republican lawmakers wanted to vote for a tort reform bill that included changes to medical liability. A few R's were privately concerned about the fine print in the bill and disagreed about details, but nearly all wanted to vote for a bill of some kind.

School finance is a much different story. There's no consensus among rank-and-file Republicans on how to cut local property taxes. (We're talking mainly about Republican members, because most of the bills approved by leadership do not spend enough money on schools to attract any House Democratic support. Therefore, 76 of the House's 86 Republicans would likely have to agree to vote on a bill.)

Further complicating matters is the fact that a significant portion of rank-and-file GOP House members seriously distrust the leadership. A number of these walked the plank for leadership and voted for the payroll tax, only to get blasted back home for supporting, in effect, a state income tax.

Several committee chairmen have now lost primaries or general elections. The leadership can't save members who cast votes unpopular back home.

A few Republican members have privately wondered whether the whole special session will be a pretext for helping one or two industries. House leadership will need to build more confidence among the membership that it really is interested in promoting a plan that will benefit the state as a whole.

The rank-and-file revolted and rejected the payroll tax in the second special session (2005). After the primary, consensus among the Republican rank-and-file is a prerequsite for passing a bill.

What business, other than a law firm, opposes tort reform?

The broad consensus among business made tort reform easier to pass. Provisions that divided businesses quickly got removed.

On taxes, it's every business for itself. Even rumors from the Sharp commission send the business lobby scurrying to members' offices, either promoting or attacking the rumored recommendations. The lobby's motto can best be described as "Tax everyone but my clients."

The Sharp commission represents an incredible diversity in industry and business size. Most major industries, from industrial to service, have someone on the commission. And small business has significant representation.

Such a diverse commission could help build consensus within the business community on the best approach to take. Such a consensus would make a bill much easier to pass.

Barring that, legislators would have to find the courage to roll the lobby. The last round of primaries could make that easier. Several incumbents with substantial trade association support lost badly.

As of March 17, lawmakers are not very far down the road that leads to consensus. Sometimes it seems like the next special session may yield the same result as the last one.

The last election, however, raised the stakes in the school finance debate. Incumbents got beat. Legislators have to address this issue in a manner that does not provoke an uproar back home.

Now lawmakers just need to agree on how to do accomplish that.