Democrats:

Two races illustrate why Democrats are tough to take seriously right now in Texas. In the US Senate there will be a run-off between a bright lawyer from Houston named Barbara Ann Radnofsky and Gene Kelley an 80-year old perennial candidate who never campaigns. Radnofsky won’t beat Texas’ most popular office holder but if she did she could be a credible senator. Kelley would be an embarrassment if he bothered to show up.

The second race is Lieutenant Governor where a former long-time member of the Texas House Ben Z. Grant will be in a run-off with Austin activist Maria Alvarado. Ms. Alvarado is not a joke but she is not a credible candidate to run the Texas Senate. Mr. Grant would be.

It is likely Ms. Radnofsky will win the run-off but it is not so clear Mr. Grant will. The November electorate can only see that Democrats aren’t for real in Texas anymore. And that is not good for anyone.

Governor:

Gov. Rick Perry should have had his eyes focused like lasers on a single race last night: Arlington’s Patrick vs. Grusendorf. The result should cause the governor some sleepless nights because the circumstances that propelled the Patrick win over the chairman of the House Education Committee could propel the Mad Grandma into his office.

I talked to a dozen long-time friends in Arlington who were convinced Mrs. Patrick was tilting at windmills. The Republicans were particularly disdainful. “Our primary is a conservative primary,” they snorted while suggesting an “educrat liberal” would get run out of town. Only one, a moderate Democrat thought Grusendorf had made a lot of enemies and Patrick might run well. She did not predict victory.

Patrick won handily. Why? The Arlington district is Republican and a Republican was going to win in November. So if you care who your state rep is you vote in the GOP primary. Tarrant County is a Republican county and county wide Republicans will win in November. So if you want a say in electing your District Attorney, you vote in the GOP Primary. That is exactly what a lot of erstwhile Democrats and independents did. And they have a different view of education than the Republican activists.

Grusendorf bemoaned a failure of the GOP base to vote in its own primary. He is wrong. They did vote. They were just a minority in their own party.

This could happen in November in the Governor’s race. The polls clearly show a majority of Texans support higher funding levels for education and don’t support vouchers. The Republican base is evenly divided. If Perry caters to his base Carol Strayhorn may well find a winning combination in Democrats who know their guy has no hope and independents who probably vote GOP in November anyway. This is why Perry is backing Democrat John Sharp’s tax plan. Of course, that may anger a lot of Republicans.

Dallas

The Democrats nominated the wrong guy for DA. They had an opportunity to nominate an ex-Marine and accomplished former Federal Prosecutor who would have been attractive north of the Trinity. Instead they nominated a man with a history of not paying income taxes and who forgot that he was an “intern” and not a “prosecutor” in Tarrant County. The Republicans nominated as strong a candidate as you can run in Toby Shook.

This doesn’t guarantee a Shook victory. Dallas is a two-party county trending Democrat not a Republican county. The turn out will be very high for this race because District Attorney matters – a lot. But Jarrett would have been a candidate all Democrats could have been proud to back. Watkins is an embarrassment.

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