A special election was held last Tuesday to replace Rep. Todd Baxter, R-Austin. Why would this interest anyone in Dallas: because it would be a harbinger of big change.

The district is modestly Republican but not one the GOP can take for granted. It didn’t but Democrat Donna Howard still ran away and hid with an 11% lead and only 73 votes short of avoiding a runoff. The GOP candidate, Ben Bentzin, picked up 37%, while another Democrat and a Libertarian divided the rest.

If Howard can pull off a compete victory in 30-days it could reasonably be interpreted that the Republican House is unraveling and within reach of Texas Democrats this fall. It will mean that Tom DeLay may well be an effective issue in state level races. And it may mean that many suburban Republican voters are ready to abandon that party for moderate Democrats. It will also mean that the state Capitol, which once had two Republican reps, will have none.

The GOP candidate is a tall handsome ex-Dell Computer executive named Ben Bentzin. He had run for office before against Austin’s retiring Democratic Senator Gonzalo Barrientos. He lost but was seen as a solid challenger in the special election where Republicans always run well.

Yet there are indications that Democrats were able to tie the well funded Bentzin to former Tom DeLay associate John Colyandro (a DeLay associate indicted on money-laundering charges connected to the Texans for a Republican Majority PAC). While Howard refrained from using the DeLay issue, Travis County Democrats did so with glee.

What Howard did do was bang the drum of school reform and GOP failures in the arena loudly. A former school board member Howard hit hard at the many empty special sessions called by the governor to deal with education issues.

Gov. Perry’s handling of the special election also became an issue. The governor called the Austin special election as soon as the law allowed – an obvious attempt to help the better known Bentzin. Yet, he allowed a solidly Democratic district to sit empty for seven months through two special elections. Democrats charged that both were a cynical abuse of power for partisan ends.

Overall Bentzin’s campaign was lackluster. Bentzin was also rumored to have dodged a televised debate. Whether he did or not Bentzin was hazy about what really happened even with conservative media.

What is particularly unnerving to Republicans is that Howard herself is not a moderate but a liberal who serves on the board of Common Cause of Texas. She is not likely to be a legislator willing to work with the governor and she is decidedly unsympathetic to vouchers and other GOP reform efforts.

It is certainly possible that Bentzin can turn the election around. Many Republicans had assumed an easy victory and probably didn’t turn out. Bentzin will certainly be a different candidate the next 30-days – at least on TV. But in a close district, an energized Democratic party will be able to unite behind a single candidate and inject sorely lacking campaign funding. At this point Howard must be seen as the favorite and Republicans have to be wondering if it really is possible that the sky could fall this November.

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